Flooding possible along the Ohio River??

[therock1811]

Over the last several hours eastern areas of OH have seen 2-4" of rain...and it's only gonna get worse. For the OH River stage here, I expect it will hit 61' sometime early next week. Flood stage = 52' If that happens there will only be one way out of Newport, KY (which is about 6 miles north of here...that's gonna be the interstate.

[therock1811]

Well the good news is the crest will be significantly lower as of right now. That is expected to be 47.5' this week. However...the river at Pittsburgh is at 29.96' as of 10:30am. That will crest at 31.5' tomorrow morning. That crest will then move down the river and we still may have problems next week.

At 46'...some restaurants along the Ohio River in Covington and Newport are inaccessible. At 47'...the lowest parts of the Serpentine Wall could, if they haven't already, become inaccessible. (This is not official data, but rather often unreported observations by people along the river.)

[therock1811]

Latest forecast takes the river above flood stage to 52.7' by Wednesday at noon.

[therock1811]

River Flood Warnings...Portsmouth, OH (since yesterday at about 1pm):

FOR PORTSMOUTH, MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING, WITH A STAGE OF 51.0
FEET MEASURED AT 445 AM TODAY. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST, WITH THE
RIVER EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 52.0 FEET AROUND 8 AM TUESDAY. THE FLOOD
STAGE IS 50.0 FEET. AT STAGES NEAR 50.0 FEET, LOW LAND FLOODING HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN SCIOTO COUNTY. BACKWATER FLOODING
BEGINS INTO THE SCIOTO RIVER...AS WELL AS ALONG SMALLER CREEKS
FLOWING INTO THE OHIO.

Maysville, KY JUST ISSUED:

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
732 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
OHIO RIVER AT MAYSVILLE.

FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT MAYSVILLE, THE LATEST STAGE WAS 49.3 FEET AT 7
AM THIS MORNING. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST, WITH THE RIVER
EXPECTED TO CREST BETWEEN 51 AND 52 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOOD
STAGE WILL BE EXCEEDED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD STAGE IS
50.0 FEET. AT STAGES NEAR 51.0 FEET, WATER ENTERS HUNTINGTON PARK
POWER PLANT AND BACKWATER AND LOW LAND FLOODING BEGINS ALONG CREEKS
NEAR MAYSVILLE.

I will be heading to the Cincinnati riverfront at 12 noon today...will have pictures up later this week hopefully.

[jillian]

I'm in Marietta, Ohio, at the confluence of the Ohio and Muskingum Rivers, and we were devastated by floods this weekend. We're used to flooding, but this was the worst since 1964.

The Ohio River crested last night at 44.97 feet, flood stage is 35 feet. It is slowly dropping and should be at flood stage tomorrow morning.

Unfortunately, the National Weather Service dropped the ball on this one, as a result an estimated 400 businesses were damaged due to the flooding.

You can read about it at: http://www.mariettatimes.com

[jillian]

Forgot to add, not only Marietta, but the entire county (Washington County), as well as across the river in Wood County, West Virginia was affected.

As well as the 400 businesses, an estimated 600 homes were affected by the flooding as well.

[therock1811]

I've seen some of the devastation there on television here and it wasn't pretty. But I don't think anyone dropped the ball, people were warned DAYS ahead that flooding was likely, there was just nothing anyone could do.

[meso_jr]

I hate to drop in where I'm not invited- but I agree, the NWS and the local media- atleast in Belmont County, Ohio and the city of Wheeling completely failed in their coverage and forecasts. I have the proof- in Friday's edition of the Times Leader, it was saying that the river at Wheeling was supposed to crest at 35', one foot below flood stage. Infact, the front page was talking about the Sternwheeler Festival at Wheeling and how they thought it wouldn't be impacted by the higher river- except for the fact that the boats couldn't dock. That was Friday- the day the area received 9-12" of rain!!!!

Cut to Saturday- Wheeling Island and several communities around were being evacuated as the river was rising. At day's end Saturday, Wheeling Island was 95% underwater, and the flooding at Wheeling was getting on to Main Street.

Finally early Sunday the river crested at 47.5', the worst flooding in 40 years. What a complete catastrophe- thousands of residents had absolutely no idea that the river was getting that high. Trust me.... I was there and saw it with my own eyes. As for the media- both local stations got a "F" in my book- not covering the flooding because the Apprentice and a college football game. It wasn't until after the crest on Sunday did they realize how bad it was....

So yes- KPIT and the local media failed the Upper Ohio Valley, and I am certain that the situation was similar downstream...

Jay

[jillian]

Jay-

Just wanted to thank you for chiming in--you put into words what I just haven't had the energy to in the past few days.

The NWS issued and retracted flood warnings THREE TIMES on Friday. After the river started rising, the re-issued the flood warning late Friday night--for a foot or two above flood stage. Instead, the Ohio River rose 22 feet in 22 hours, between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. In a community where one foot of river is the difference between evacuation and caution, the failure was devastating.

After all was said and done the NWS blamed a "computer anamoly" on their inaccurate forecast. Interestingly enough, FEMA officials, as well as the Governor of Ohio don't disagree that the NWS was woefully inaccurate.

After continuous complaints and demands from business owners and residents in the area, as well as city and county officials, the NWS has agreed to an investigation into their river prediction forecasts.

Jill

[meso_jr]

Just a little more information about the devastation at Wheeling. If you know anything about Wheeling, WV you know that north of the city in the Ohio River sits Pike Island Locks and Dam. Now, right at Wheeling in the O.R. is Wheeling Island, located in a very wide area of the river. Now, the NWS once received river stages at the former Warf Parking Garage- which used to sit on the river in downtown Wheeling. However, it was removed several years back in favor of Heritage Port. Now, the NWS receives river stages from the Wheeling Treatment which is located south of the city of Wheeling. In 1996, the NWS did a fairly good job of handling the flood because their measurements came from the warf at Wheeling. However, in 2004, the NWS used stages from the water treatment plant south of Wheeling. Now that may sound fine and dandy, but you must understand that because the river is wider south of Wheeling, the flood stages will always be lower there than what they are for the city of Wheeling and Whg. Island.

So the NWS issued forecasts for Wheeling based on conditions south of the city. When they did this, they saw that the river stage was much lower. However, residents from the water treatment plant northward to Pike Island (including Whg and Whg Island) called the media and the NWS claiming that the river was already above where the NWS had predicted it would crest- 12 hours before it was supposed to!!!! So what happened, the NWS and media began to use Pike Island to take stages and predict the crests for Wheeling and Whg Island southward until the treatment plant.

For so a good many miles, residents had absolutely no idea that even though the NWS was calling for 41.5', they were actually going to get 47-48'. Imagine the horror of seeing the river continue to rise *rapidly* even after it supposedly "crested".



Jay