Jamaica Beach Weather Statement

[GalvestonDuck]

Special Weather and Tide Statement No. 2
Issued by the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
8:45 AM CDT Wednesday, October 6, 2004

...Above normal tides and very heavy rainfall expected along the Upper Texas Coast...

This statement applies to Southeast Texas and especially to the coastal counties of
Calhoun...Jackson...Matagorda...Brazoria...Galveston...Harris...Chambers...Orange...
and Jefferson which includes the Houston/Galveston and Beaumont/Port Arthur/
Orange Metropolitan Areas along the Upper Texas Coast.

A complex weather pattern is beginning to take shape along the Texas Gulf Coast
that will bring above normal tides and very heavy rainfall for the next several days.
The above normal tides may cause saltwater flooding along the coast and in the
bays while the heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding areawide. This weather
situation is still evolving, so it is imperative that future weather bulletins be consulted
to remain informed of the latest projections on the expected impact to the area.

Early this morning...NOAA satellite pictures and Doppler radars along the Texas
and Louisiana coasts indicate a large area of cloudiness, rain and thunderstorms
over the western Gulf of Mexico. At this time there are no signs of tropical cyclone
development but an area of low pressure is developing East of Brownsville, Texas.
This low pressure area will cause winds to flow counterclockwise around the center
which will result in increasing E and NE winds along the Upper Texas Coast.
Wind velocities will increase to 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph) with higher gusts
during the next 24 to 48 hours...higher in thunderstorms and squalls.

These persistent E and NE winds will cause tide levels to begin rising to 1 to 2 feet
above normal especially along East and North facing shorelines such as the bay side
of Galveston Island...the bayshore in Galveston Bay from Morgans Point to Virginia
Point (near the Galveston Causeway)...the bayshore of Bolivar Peninsula...and the
western shorelines of Matagorda Bay and Sabine Lake. At this time, tides are not
expected to rise to critical levels that would pose a threat of major roadway flooding.
However, tides may overtop bulkheads...boat docks...yards and some lower-lying
residential streets in areas below 4 feet above sea level.

Remember, this forecast is based on the most recent data available and is subject to
revision over the next several days. Therefore, preparations should include a margin
of error that allows for the possibility of even higher tides. It would be a good idea to
move vehicles, boats and loose items below 5 feet above sea level to higher ground
for the next several days to insure they will not be damaged or flooded by rising tides.
Boats moored in boat lifts should be raised to a level that would prevent them from
becoming adrift from the high tides.

At 7:00 AM CDT this morning...the tide in West Bay at the Jamaica Beach Weather
Observatory was 2.28 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) which is 0.98 feet
above the predicted astronomical (normal) tide for 7:00 AM CDT.

The other major threat for the next several days will be very heavy rainfall that could
lead to flash flooding. Several computer models are projecting rainfall along the
Upper Texas Coast over the next few days will average 2 to 4 inches areawide with
some totals of 6 to 10 inches possible in areas that receive "training" thunderstorms
which is a term used to describe a conveyor belt of thunderstorms that repeatedly
move over the same location. In years past, major flood events have occurred in
Southeast Texas during the month of October...most notably in 1994...due to the
clash of westward moving Gulf weather systems with eastward moving frontal
systems that stall along or near the coast. The exact amount of rainfall over the
next few days will greatly depend on the alignment and timing of several weather
systems. If these weather systems stall over the area...even higher rainfall totals
would be possible.

Please monitor the latest weather forecasts from the National Weather Service
through NOAA Weather Radio...TV...AM/FM radio stations...or the Internet for
the latest weather updates. In addition, the Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory
will issue special weather and tide statements as conditions warrant.

Jim O'Donnel
Jamaica Beach Weather Observatory