STORM2K

FXUS62 KTBW 291801
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

CURRENTLY...88D ALREADY DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING OFF OVER POLK
COUNTY AND ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE VICINITY OF TARPON
SPRINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDE...
AND WILL ADVERTISE SCATTERED EVENING POPS IN THE GRIDS.

SHORT TERM(TON-THURS)...ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN
SLOWLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BEING INDUCED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM STRONG UPPER JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SPILL EAST OVERNIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
MORE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...SO WILL ADVERTISE PARTLY CLOUDY VS
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN
CHECK AND PATCHY WORDING SHOULD SUFFICE...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR IT IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WET FROM TIME TO TIME AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION HEADS THIS WAY. MODELS
ARE DIVERGING A BIT WITH AVN STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND NOW A BIT
FASTER MOVING THESE FEATURES EAST ACROSS THE FA...WHILE THE ETA/MESO-
ETA SUITE ARE WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER. AVN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS
OVERDONE AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ETA/MESO-ETA WHICH HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY EVENT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHEST VALUES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...MAV MAX TEMPS AGAIN LOOK TO HIGH
AND WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE COOLER ETA/FWC...OTHERWISE WILL USE A
BLEND.

EXTENDED(FRI-TUE)...BY FRIDAY UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WITH WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY INLAND AS FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO FLORIDA AS IT SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WITH LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
AS UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION PASS BY FRIDAY WINDS COME
AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THE NEXT DAYS...BUT NO HIGHLIGHT ARE
EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY AS RH LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA.

PRELIMINARY #'S
BKV 063/085 063/085 064 1433
TPA 069/084 069/085 071 2543
GIF 067/085 069/085 069 3543
SRQ 066/083 068/084 070 2543
FMY 067/086 069/085 070 3543

.TBW...NONE.

JCM/PRC

000
FXUS62 KJAX 291856
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
253 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE FRONT MAINLY
WHEN ENCOUNTERING ST. JOHNS RIVER BREEZE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY
RANGING FROM MID 70S BEACHES TO MID 80S INLAND.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN GULF WHICH IS
NOW PRODUCING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
OVER THE GULF WATERS. 12Z GFS STILL THE MOST AGRESSIVE MODEL
ESPECIALLY WITH QPF AND OMEGA AS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND WIND FIELDS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF I-10 AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE
THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEABREEZE RELATED CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY INCREASING POPS BACK TO CHANCE
CATEGORY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK DRY AT THIS POINT WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE. WILL GO WITH A AVN/NGM MOS AVERAGE FOR
POPS AS AVN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH AND FWC LOOKS LOW.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL WED NGT...WHEN WINDS INCR TO 15
TO 20 KTS AND SEAS WL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT AND REMAIN AT SCEC LEVELS
INTO THU.

FIRE WX...NO HEADLINES.

FCSTID = 4
AMG 61 84 62 85 / 0 0 20 30
SSI 63 77 66 79 / 0 0 30 40
JAX 62 82 65 83 / 0 10 40 40
SGJ 65 78 67 80 / 0 20 50 40
GNV 61 84 64 85 / 10 30 50 40
OCF 62 83 64 85 / 20 40 50 40

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS62 KMLB 291907
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
305 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

CURRENTLY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER THE
ATLC HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND REFOCUSED OVER THE PENINSULA.
BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE PROPAGATING INLAND
AND WILL COLLIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. 12Z MESOETA DEPICTS LOCATION
PRETTY WELL (WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER) THOUGH COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK OVERDONE GIVEN TBW MORNING SOUNDING WHICH
STILL SHOWED LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. LIGHT AND ERRATIC STEERING
FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STORMS DRIFTING IN
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. CONVECTION MAY GET A LIFT FROM H5 SHORTWAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVE...SO A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG.

VIS SAT IMGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. APPEARS IT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TAIL END OF OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AIDING THE BLOW-UP.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TOO STRONG FOR THIS TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL ENTITY.

WED-FRI...WEAK H5 TROUGH WILL INDUCE A WAVE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WHICH IS PRODUCING
LIKELY POPS WED AND 80% WED NIGHT. THE H5 PATTERN AND ASSOCD
SHORTWAVES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A CLOSED SFC LOW IN
THE GULF AS GFS IS ADVERTISING. MEANWHILE...THE NGM IS EXHIBITING
ITS DRY BIAS. WILL LEAN ON THE ETA MOS FOR POPS WHICH...LIKE THE
GFS...ALSO SHOWS A HIGHER POP WED NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY. ETA
POPS LOOK TOO HIGH THU AND WILL RETURN TO LOWER AVN (MAV) POPS THEN.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH THAN NORTH THROUGH THU. DRIER AIR AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE A WARM DRY FRI. SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP TO COOL THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES.

SAT-TUE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HOT TEMPS ESP SAT WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE COOLING THINGS OFF EVEN FOR THE BARRIER
ISLANDS. STOUT WESTERLY H85 FLOW NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL SEND EVERYONE
INTO THE UPPER 80S. SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ESP NEAR THE COAST. WILL
LOWER POPS SAT TO 20% DUE TO LIMITED BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED.
WESTERLY GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES. GFS IS INDICATING A SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
SUN AFTN. BUT IF THE GFS IS A LITTLE FAST WITH CURRENT SOLUTION...
SUN MAY BE AS HOT AS SAT ALONG THE COAST. PCP CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION ASSOCD WITH THIS WEAKENING TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO ONSHORE COMPONENT
MON AND TUE...PROVIDING RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SHOWERS
MOVE ONSHORE MON AND TUE MORNINGS AND WILL SHOW THIS GRAPHICALLY.

MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE EAST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING COLD FRONT/
TROUGH WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

DAB BB 067/081 066/088 066 1343
MCO BB 067/083 068/089 068 2343
MLB BB 068/082 068/086 069 1454= 28

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
AVIATION/FIRE...DECKER

000
FXUS62 KMLB 300109
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

LATE AFTN AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN/INTERIOR SECTIONS IS
DECREASING QUICKLY AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND SEA BRZ CONVERGENCE
WANES. MODELS SHOW LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO SE BY MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS LIKELY MOVING IN TWD THE COAST
TWD MORNING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A DECREASING TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SO WILL JUST COVER WITH A 10 PCT CHC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
LATER TONIGHT BUT STILL SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR PTLY CLDY SKIES.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF HAS MERGED
WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN THIS EVENING...
THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SE GULF N OF
WRN CUBA. A FEW MORE OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE POINTING TO
A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY WED.
STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FCST WITH A 5MB STD DEV MSLP AMONG THE
ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE ERN GULF BY 12Z. EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH/
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SFC LOW REMAIN IN QUESTION...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S FL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT.
MARINE...E/SE WINDS ACROSS THE CSTL WATERS WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER
AVIATION/FIRE...LASCODY