STORM2K

Hold on to your hats, eh?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS THICKENED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
REMAINED RATHER COOL, AND WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE WEATHER STARTS TO UNDERGO A RAPID AND DRAMATIC CHANGE TONIGHT,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND STRONG
JET DYNAMICS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BELIEVE A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS MENTIONED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK, CONVECTION WILL
BE MAINLY ELEVATED TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HAIL.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG JET DYNAMICS. LOOKS LIKE A HIGH
HELICTY, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ALL DAY LONG.

AFTER TOMORROW, WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO LATE WEEK, WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN ALMOST EVERY PERIOD.
&&

Uh Oh Looks like trouble is brewing.

Yeppers....It'll be one of those few times that
I take my weather radio to work with me. Better
safe than sorry!

breeze wrote:Yeppers....It'll be one of those few times that
I take my weather radio to work with me. Better
safe than sorry!

Yes indeed. it could get pretty scarry for yall.

Be careful Breeze!!! You could see some tornadoes down there as well!

Indianapolis's Hazardous weather outlook 20 hrs ago speaks of the possibly of hail, strong winds and tornadoes:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EST SUN OCT 17 2004

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-181039-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
540 AM EST SUN OCT 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
LAFAYETTE TO GREENFIELD TO RUSHVILLE.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY.

The only chance of severe weather in the Indy forecast area will be from Bloomington, IN to Dayton, OH and points south, more likely near and south of the Ohio River. I don't think the warm front is going to make it far enough north today, especially not as far as that HWO was indicating. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if areas from Indy north stay in the 40's all day with rain/drizzle, cloud cover and brisk E to NE winds.

PurdueWx80 wrote:The only chance of severe weather in the Indy forecast area will be from Bloomington, IN to Dayton, OH and points south, more likely near and south of the Ohio River. I don't think the warm front is going to make it far enough north today, especially not as far as that HWO was indicating. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if areas from Indy north stay in the 40's all day with rain/drizzle, cloud cover and brisk E to NE winds.

Thanks for your outlook Purdue

I don't think we'll see any severe wx here in N KY today. Reason being it's been raining HEAVILY most of the day.

therock1811 wrote:I don't think we'll see any severe wx here in N KY today. Reason being it's been raining HEAVILY most of the day.

Yes hopefully that will not allow much instability to build.

No kidding. Check out this radar:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kiln.shtml

This is storm total since 9pm Sunday (Time Sensitive Data):
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.80stp/si.kiln.shtml
I'm in Boone County, KY and have had up to 3" of rain in that time! That's the first county to the left of the red line just south of Cincinnati on that map. I'm actually a little east of that red line, which is I-75.

therock1811 wrote:No kidding. Check out this radar:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kiln.shtml

This is storm total since 9pm Sunday (Time Sensitive Data):
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.80stp/si.kiln.shtml

Well it looks like, SO FAR, yall have dodged the Bullet for today. but unexpected things can and sometimes do happen in weather.

Yeah so far. BUT there is flooding going on right now in some areas. We needed the rain but this is too much too fast.

therock1811 wrote:Yeah so far. BUT there is flooding going on right now in some areas. We needed the rain but this is too much too fast.

Hope it does not get to bad.

Stay safe, Jeremy! It's been storming quite
heavily here for most of the day, but, looks
like a big break in the clouds, for now.
Unfortunately, that could allow some sun and
daytime heating, with our chances of severe
weather increasing later this evening. NWS
just issued a Tornado Watch for my area
until 8PM.

PurdueWx80 wrote:The only chance of severe weather in the Indy forecast area will be from Bloomington, IN to Dayton, OH and points south, more likely near and south of the Ohio River. I don't think the warm front is going to make it far enough north today, especially not as far as that HWO was indicating. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if areas from Indy north stay in the 40's all day with rain/drizzle, cloud cover and brisk E to NE winds.

What kept the Warm Front South Of Us? Strong NE Flow?