STORM2K

Finally, the temps are back to fal mode.

The City of Irving forecast for 10/25-31/2004:

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 82. South wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 69. South wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 82. South wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 82. South wind around 15 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. South southwest wind around 15 mph becoming northwest.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 57.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 72.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 76.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

.UPDATE...
MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY WEAK AGAIN TODAY. 12Z NGM IS NOW IN AND HAS
NOT HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...HAS NORTH TEXAS MUCH
DRIER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. PATTERN STARTING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH CONVECTION COMING OFF THE BIG BEND AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CURRENT ZONE PRECIP PATTERN LOOKS OKAY WITH
BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY IN THE SOUTH MOVING NORTH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF IT MOVING NORTH A BIT FASTER...AGAIN JUST BASED
ON YESTERDAY SO WILL WATCH PROGRESSION CLOSELY. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
REST OF THE WEEK BUT PATTERN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW IS UNSETTLED AND CAN
NOT RULE OUT PRECIP UNTIL AFTER THE BIG COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND DRIES US OUT. AN UNPROVEN THEORY OF MINE IS
THAT WHEN THE FLOW COMES OUT OF MEXICO THE REDUCED DATA AVAILABILITY
DOWN THERE MAY CAUSE THE MODELS TO MISS ON VORT MAX TIMING AND OTHER
PARAMETERS. SATELLITE SHOWS US TAPPED INTO SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WHICH ALWAYS SEEMS TO ADD TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT
FORECAST TO CHANGE AS WE REACT TO THE EVOLVING SITUATION. 84