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Mid-Latitude Auroras possible in the next 3 days ...
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2004 7:00 pm
by Stormsfury
according to
http://www.spacew.com
Code: Select all
A series of Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections are in transit to the Earth. Periods of active to minor (or perhaps briefly major) geomagnetic storming will be possible as these disturbances arrive over the next 72 hours. The first disturbance is expected to arrive on 06 November, followed by another disturbance on 07 and possibly 08 November. An auroral activity watch for middle latitudes is being issued for this time period (06-08 November). Code: Select all
Solar Activity Update
Region 10696 is beginning to near the central solar meridian. It is maintaining a complex and potentially volatile magnetic configuration. Major solar flare activity is expected to remain possible from this spot cluster. The active region is also becoming increasingly capable of producing Earthward-directed coronal mass ejections.
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2004 8:50 pm
by weatherlover427
Would I be able to see anything here at about 34 degrees North?
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2004 11:28 pm
by Aslkahuna
If the Geomagnetic storm were to become strong enough to trigger aurbo activity that far south, you would have to be about 200 miles east of your location to see it because the lights to your north simply throws too much skyglow into the sky for anything like an aurora to be seen. Another major flare occurred shortly after 00Z-this one was almost X-class and the X-Ray profile suggests that there has been another CME.
Steve
Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2004 11:43 pm
by weatherlover427
It wouldn't be too hard to get away from the lights, i.e. into an area dark enough to maybe see something. Just wondering (and trying to figure out) if it will make it down this way or not.
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:25 pm
by Aslkahuna
The problem is that we won't know for sure until the shock impact we see the values that indicate the strength and polarity of the Interplanetary field and by then the activity is already happening. Generally, though, our experience is that when the ap values on the hourly Magnetometer summary from USAF (available on the SEC site) hits 100 then we will start to see aurbo down here which would mean aurbo visible from your latitude. When ap values hit 180 or higher then we are talking decently bright aurbo and when it hits the maximum value of 300 then the whole sky lights up as far south as the Tropics. Other people prefer to use the Planetary Index (K-index) as the indicator. Chris Schur in northern AZ has found that a K=6 will mean subvisual to faint aurbo in his location. Anything in the K=8 or higher range will mean a bright mid to low latitude aurbo and K=9 is the max.
Steve
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2004 5:33 pm
by WXBUFFJIM
Usually at K=8 we see fairly decent auroras in the northern sky and overhead here in Maryland. I had two encounters of such events in recent years and it's truly amazing when you see the aurbo.
Jim
Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2004 10:03 pm
by coriolis
Next question: Is any time of night better than another?
Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:30 am
by Aslkahuna
The Midnight to Dawn sectors are usually the most active though during the early phase of a big Gemag storm any night sector will experience auroral activity. A shock passage has occurred, but so far we haven't seen any major response in the IMF which is still northward pointing.
Steve
Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2004 4:26 pm
by Aslkahuna
The Geomagnetic storm has begun. Because we have several CMEs enroute, this will be a long duration event with discrete maxima during which the field may become disturbed enough for mid latitude aurbo activity. This activity could continue for the next three days. Meanwhile a X2 Proton flare occurred today which has probably sent a strong CME this way.
Steve
Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2004 9:55 pm
by Stormsfury
Just recently, reports of the Northern Lights have come in as far south as Douglasville, GA ...
SF
Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2004 10:21 pm
by PurdueWx80
Just went out...AMAZING show. I have never seen anything like this in my entire life...this puts last year's show to shame. I also managed to see a very bright shooting star in the Western sky as well. From the city lights, you can still see the brightness of the sky to the North...but out in the country the sheets and waves are very distinct and bright.