STORM2K

I was actualy looking at the North american forecast models, and noticed a very strong high pressure diving southeastward through next week from Northwestern Canada. By late week, and into next weekend (11-12/16-04) we could see yet an even colder event then what we have seen this week.
This combined with having to actualy watch the tropics during the week, to see whether the GFS or NOGAPS is right on whether a system develops east of the Bahama's will keep us watching the maps closely!!

Yes, I agree. I have seen that. Supposed to be very cold here... only highs in the 40s...

This is definately an interesting trend that will have to be monitored closely. The GFS is on the warming trend a bit and I have to lean toward that at this time, but it will be interesting to see what pans out. Cooler weather will prevail, but I don't think its going to be as frigid as initially thought. Hopefully the FL penninsula will be spared from another system. You guys have taken a beating down there and don't deserve to go through that especially this close to the holidays. Hopefully all will work out for the best.

here is the 6 day forecast map from the HPC:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
Also notice the low north of Hispanola, east of the Bahama's.
But, the strong high located over the central plains will bring down some colder then average temps for next weekend. This same high may actually drive this low east of the Bahama's westward.
Time will tell on the low, but cooler temps are in store for the eastern half of the conus.

The Southeast may start to see their first freeze of the season with this trough. The EUROPEAN is clearly showing a Ridge dropping straight out of Canada. Some Cold Conditions could become prominent over the Southeast and Northern States. This outbreak may be colder than this past one. New Orleans looks like we will see highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's and lows in the 40's with 30's North of the Lake.

As for the tropics I haven't bought into development all along and don't by in it now. We will have trough after trough building over that area with little to no favorable conditions all week. If anything does form all I could see would be a Hybrid System.

I am really enjoying this frontal passage on friday. It was time for some cool dry air down here and a cold weather outbreak in the middle of november is no surprise. Driven through many a november snow storms and subzero weather. No ice fishing yet but things are getting ready for that first Polar Express and the fish huts will be out before Christmass up along the Canadian border.

Bring on the snow

We will have highs in the 40s on Tuesday, lows in the 20s.

This is weather more representative of January, than of early November.


Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!


-Jeb

South florida, we are on schedule -- having the second dry-air front this fall, nothing below 70s at night yet in the Keys. About mid-November to Thanksgiving would expect one front with 60s, maybe high 50s at night. Only one year out of 10 have we had 50s or 40s early and often in November, the very front-filled winter of '01, if I remember right.

Looking forward to really cool air, if it comes.