STORM2K

Posted: **Mon Nov 22, 2004 2:13 am**

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST...

00Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS...SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...TO RETURN ACROSS SERN TX/LA AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. AS UPPER SPEED MAX TRANSLATES RAPIDLY
DOWNSTREAM...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER AR AFTER
00Z/24TH. IT APPEARS INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL
ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM/DEEPEN...ENHANCING INSTABILITY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MODIFIED DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT. WITH LLJ
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IT APPEARS WARM
ADVECTION MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE. SECONDARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN EXIT REGION
OF UPPER JET ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION OF NCNTRL TX. GIVEN THE
RAPID EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS A RECOVERING WARM SECTOR THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MDT RISK OUTLOOK.

What do you all think? It appears to me that there coulod be a greater wind damage threat than a tornado threat... but we will see.

Posted: **Mon Nov 22, 2004 9:05 am**

I wonder where the greatest threat will be. The local met here on channel 3 said that right now it appears to be east of Lafayette, but they would have to see exactly where the line of storms develop. Let's hope it does not get to bad and moves through quickly.

Posted: **Mon Nov 22, 2004 10:02 am**

Well models have been trending a bit slower with the overall position of this system. So the moderate risk instead of being centered over Jackson, Mississippi is instead being centered about 100-200 miles to the west of there. A signficant wind damage and tornado threat seems likely with this. Now will have to see how this system evolves through tonight into tomorrow. The severe wx maybe ongoing into Wednesday through alot of the southeastern states.

Jim

Posted: **Mon Nov 22, 2004 11:52 am**

That moderate risk should be in place today with all the tornado warnings we have seen this morning in Houston. Just my $ .02 for what it is worth.

Posted: **Mon Nov 22, 2004 3:08 pm**

I sure hope the severe weather is not as bad as forecast in the South. I also hope that Virginia does not get any more tornadoes. We've had our fair share already from tropical systems earlier this year. My prayers continue to go out for Texas citizens as well; they have definitely had ENOUGH rain already, and they sure don't need severe weather such as tornadoes.

-Jeb

Posted: **Tue Nov 23, 2004 10:02 am**

The way some NWS offices are talking (namely Jackson, MS), I would not be surprised to see a high risk get posted.

STORM2K

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK -- MOD RISK FOR LA, E TX....

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK -- MOD RISK FOR LA, E TX....