STORM2K

What a pattern we have in place. A quick return to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms may be on the horizon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TO SEE CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS INLAND ZONES
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY
GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S...BUT FREEZING TEMPS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHC OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE RAPID
RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY AND DESTABILIZATION LATE AHEAD OF A
SHRT WV TROF. BELIEVE THAT THE RAIN CHC WILL BE BEST ALONG
THE UPPER COAST TAPERED TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE UPPER COAST FRIDAY EVENING FOR SVR POTENTIAL
DUE TO A POTENTIAL WF BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. STAY TUNED.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND COOL
FRONT. FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK IS
COMPLICATED DUE TO SW FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
OVER THE AREA AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SW U.S. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A COASTAL TROF MAY
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME DECENT RAIN.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...WILL LEAVE CHC POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE. THEY MAY INCREASE TO LIKELY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

And from the SPC Day 3 map:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SWRN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK. DOWNSTREAM SFC
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST SHOULD RETREAT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW
MODIFIED AIRMASS TO RETURN TO SERN TX/LA AS LLJ INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH. IF 00Z ETA GUIDANCE
VERIFIES...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS OBTAINED...LATEST DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

They're predicting Tstorms for Central Texas on Monday. Guess those mushrooms in front yard will stay happy...

More rain? At least its going to take a few days to get here... Gives us a chance to dry out a little...

Possible severe weather Friday night followed by another heavy rain event Mon-Tues. Another storm system will be poised for the end of next week. This is getting crazy


Houston-Galveston AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CST THU NOV 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS...A CLOUD FREE DAY ACROSS SE TX. TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 60S AREAWIDE. NEAR CALM WINDS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND
A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONSIDERATION IS THE CHC OF RAIN FRI AND FRI NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AND SFC TROF. HAVE
FAVORED THE GFS CONCERNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE GFS IS
VERIFYING MUCH BETTER IN THE SHORT TERM CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DW
PT FIELD TO THE SOUTH AND OVER THE GULF. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC
ACROSS THE FAR SW ZONES FOR THE FRI AFT HOURS AND THEN ADVERTISE A
CHC ACROSS THE CEN AND EASTERN ZONES FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT AN
ELEVATED CAP WILL PUT THE LID ON ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY TO AID CONVERGENCE. SCT ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OFFSHORE SAT MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SE ZONES FOR A SVR THREAT FRI NIGHT...BUT WOULD PROBABLY
NEED BETTER SFC BASED INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS IS ADVERTISING TO SEE
IT. IF ETA SFC DW PTS VERIFY...WHICH IS DOUBTFUL...THEN THIS WOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM.

NEXT ISSUE IS THE CHC OF RAIN SUN AFT THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST GFS IS
ADVERTISING A QUICKER ONSET AND MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. COASTAL TROF/WF IS LIKELY TO BE DRAPED IN THE
AREA AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. IN
A NUT SHELL...WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS WHERE RAIN COVERAGE IS
HIGH...BUT HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHEN. HAVE OPTED TO PLACE 50 POPS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND THEN TREND UP WHEN NEEDED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. I HATE TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS...BUT WITH A
BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND PW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WE COULD
WELL BE IN FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MON AND TUE. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUE EVENING WHICH WILL DRY
THE LOW-LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUPPORTS HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SW U.S. WILL BE POISED TO APPROACH AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO THE WX ROLLER COASTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SPEED ALONG OVR SE TX.

A new severe weather watch will likely be neccessary shortly for southeast, eastern Texas, and western Louisiana for hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes.

Jim

I see the dryline storms starting to form, and they are building very fast. expect them to rotate, on a high helicity line. Also since its dryline , it will most likely be Low Precipitation Suercells, beautiful, with lots of lightning.

Houston, I expect you to see the storms builind south your way in the next hr or 2 when the cap over you breaks