STORM2K

From the Houston-Galveston AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR MARINE AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
525 AM CST THU DEC 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA
AFFECTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND LASTING...OFF
AND ON...THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY. POSITION OF COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER STABLE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON SATURDAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL CROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SUGGESTING WE COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY SINCE
MOST AREAS HAVE NOT DRIED OUT FROM THE LAST EPISODE.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING EVEN MORE RAIN OUR WAY.

You're just full of good news this morning KD!!!

I heard that Texas and Louisana would have a cooler and wetter winter thanks to el nino.

Awwwwwwwwwwww...........<insert expletive of choice here>. I've got to start smoking turkeys this weekend and it looks more and more like I'll be running in and out of the house to baste birds in the rain. Figures.

snowflake wrote:I heard that Texas and Louisana would have a cooler and wetter winter thanks to el nino.

That is normally what happens when we have an El Nino weather pattern during this time of year. We've seen the wet. We're just now starting to work on the cooler.

Hey VB, have you heard any word of some true Canadien or Arctic air spilling down into our region this month? Any hints of it?

Same for N-TX

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CaptinCrunch wrote:Same for N-TX

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Looks like my family's gonna be needing umbrellas before heading to Church.

Johnny wrote:Hey VB, have you heard any word of some true Canadien or Arctic air spilling down into our region this month? Any hints of it?

Honestly Johnny I haven't looked real closely over the last couple of weeks due to family concerns, but since they have pretty well been taken care of I will be looking more closely. I have heard hints of at least one outbreak but haven't really looked or researched past that. Hopefully I will be able to look and comment more later with things on a more even keel now.

More rain.... We need more cold...

Johnny wrote:Hey VB, have you heard any word of some true Canadien or Arctic air spilling down into our region this month? Any hints of it?

NOw that I have had a chance to look at the models a little, it does appear that there will be an Arctic outbreak in the 12th-14th timeframe. Unfortunately attm it appears we will be backsided by it as opposed to a direct hit like our friends about 300 miles to our East. The 850mb shows the 0 line well into the N GOM to our east. Still time for it all to change. We will see.

Well so far so good... I have been seeing the weather reports and some of the stations are saying Saturday, and some are saying Sunday... Go figure... It looks rainy out... and I have some errands to run.. I guess I should go do them now..

Still only .02" of rain so far this weekend. I hope it isn't saving it all up for tomorrow!! If it does the normal it will wait till rush hour!!

I have a friend stopping in at IAH on her way to San Antonio... She gets in at 6 pm tomorrow.. Hope she gets delayed.. I havent seen her in years! I need more than an hour!

Right now it looks like the storms won't be through here till after dinner time. You may get your wish if they are between us and her destination.

vbhoutex wrote:Right now it looks like the storms won't be through here till after dinner time. You may get your wish if they are between us and her destination.

Little ole me forgot about the Low and attached warm front that was supposed to lift through the area prior to tonights storms and we have now been having pretty steady rains for at least half the morning and it is still raining. At the house we have had .4" so far, and I imagine that most of the area has seen at least that much with higher amounts nearer the coast.

Earlier it looked like the atmosphere has become quite destabilized, but currently looks more stable out there so we will be watching!!

Just popping in to see what the consensus is on the rain tonight. It looks like it has cleared up from the radar I am looking at. Is all that stuff up to our northwest heading our way?

Ah well.. I think Patterson Road in Bear Creek Park is going to be under water until well into the spring at this point.

Yes the stuff well off to our NW is supposed to swing through later tonight. With th eamount of rain we have had today and the stabilization that has probably taken place due to the lack of heating, we may be in a good situtaion here in SE TX as opposed to other areas to our N which are already obviously getting some strong storms and probable severe weather.

Yes the stuff well off to our NW is supposed to swing through later tonight. With th eamount of rain we have had today and the stabilization that has probably taken place due to the lack of heating, we may be in a good situtaion here in SE TX as opposed to other areas to our N which are already obviously getting some strong storms and probable severe weather. And you well could be right about Patterson Road. It has happened before!

Looks like we could see some severe storms later tonight, but it's so muggy like mid-summer outside! This is definately the fall that wasn't. October was extremely warm, November was warm as well. Last week we got down to the mid-upper 30's but we should have had our first freeze by now and it doesn't look like we'll see one for another week at least. AND to top it all off the Mosquitos are HORRIBLE! Duck hunting is no good either, the ducks simply have not flown down here yet. Please send us an arctic front soon mother nature to get things back on track .