STORM2K

Here we are again with S TX and SW LA snow in the forecast.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-241300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
630 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004

...SNOW IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE WHILE A LONG PERIOD OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING
AND GIVE EXTRA ATTENTION TO CROSS WINDS WHEN DRIVING ON EAST TO WEST
ELEVATED ROADS.

BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM EDNA TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA TO LIBERTY. THESE ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 8 AM AND 11 AM.

TEMPERATURE WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN CROCKETT AND
COLLEGE STATION TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TO NEAR
FREEZING TOWARD THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE SITUATION IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND ANY SNOW
THAT DOES FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE THEN
CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING...OTHERWISE NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. ANY SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR WILL END BY THE EVENING.

THE BIGGEST TRAVEL THREAT FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ICY GLAZE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS MELTED SNOW
RE-FREEZES ON THESE SURFACES. THIS THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHEST TOWARD
THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MANY AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ACTUAL HIGHS MAY REACH TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
32 DURING THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH THE TEMPERATURES THEN FALLING
BELOW FREEZING BY SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
20 ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON AND
BETWEEN 25 AND 32 FROM INTERSTATE 10 TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OF CHRISTMAS
DAY.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT....
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

Maybe, just maybe a dusting in a few spots around Southeast Texas, for everyone else, maybe a few flakes.

We are still hoping here in New Orleans!

Galveston County Forecast straight from the Houston-Galveston NWS forecast

Friday: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high around 35. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible

Which will put us in the lower accumulation category since we are further from the coast. You more than likely will get more than I do. I am 2 miles North of I-10 near the West Sam Houston Tollway.

I do think that we will see some minor accumulating snows all over the Metro Houston area tomorrow. I'm still hoping for a more northerly track for the low so we can actually get more than a dusting.

Still holding my breath VB. I have seen potential come and go over many years. Its interesting enough just to see it in the forecast but who knows maybe just maybe....

KatDaddy wrote:Still holding my breath VB. I have seen potential come and go over many years. Its interesting enough just to see it in the forecast but who knows maybe just maybe....

Even as the clouds broke here late this am it was only "clear" for like an hour at the most before midlevel clouds(moisture) started moving back in. That is encouraging to me, but unlike you I am not holding my breath!!

vbhoutex wrote:but unlike you I am not holding my breath!!

Good...

The downplay begins:

Excerpt from the Hou-Gal NWS AFD

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE WINTER WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR THOSE HOPING FOR SOME CHRISTMAS SNOW
BUT GOOD NEWS FOR THE TRAVELERS.

The incoming surge of colder air is too dry and too deep and is suppressing the moisture field too far South. Slight encouragement in increasing moisture coming in from the West right now, but once it meets the colder dryer air more than likely all we will see is a few flakes if we even see that. Moisture levels are adequate at higher levels, but very dry at the lower levels which the frozen precip must fall through to get to the ground.

No. Maybe a few flakes if someone is lucky RIGHT ON THE COAST.

I hope so. But, it is 8:42 p.m. and nothing as of yet. Watch me staying up all night like a fool to see if anything will fall from the sky. The things crazy cajuns will do.