STORM2K

Good Evening..23:25PDT 11 de MAYO del 2003
!Feliz El Dia de las Madres en este Noche Domigo muy Bonita!(Happy Mothers' Day on this very beautiful Sunday Night).
In typical 'Arixwx' style,I'm going to prog some pretty unusual Wx...not seen anywhere.Yep..Gambling.
This is what I saw when I logged on after a loooong day of moving,so I'm going to truncate some wording to save time.The gist is this:ITs a Good Sized 'MCC'(Mesoscale Convective Complex)..NOT the typical MCS(Mesoscale Convective System)...there is a differece in size(about the equal of Iowa or Ohio)and the Longevity.It's impressive and sitting over 'Estado Tamaulipas,Mexico'(Tahma-OOL-EE-Pahz,MAY-He-Coh),just south/SW of Brownsville,Tx. and headed E by NE RIDING the Southern Edge of the Subtropical Jet(STJ),which has relaxed abit and sagged further South in latitude.It is also tailing the very last section of the CONUS Cold Frontal Boundry,which has the Main Low @ approx 986mb over Michigan.Nicely wound up,I might add.DTW is reporting RA and 56F with a WSW wind @22kt. Check
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR1.html
That is the GOES Sat Infrared Color Enhanced shot of both the Cold Front and the MCC.IR Channel '1'. Toggle thru each (ECIR 2,3&4)to get the 'whole picture'.It's impressive.Compare with overlay with this:Check
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
That will show the movement and developement of a possible Troppy FrontalGenisis of the MCC as it migrates into a VERY favorbable environment..warm SSTs from 27C=81F at 25.00N Lat at 97W Longitude
near the Tropic Of Cancer between Bustamente,MX and Ciudad Victoria,MX all the way to NW FLA at 83W Long 30NLat
Check
http://128.160.23.54/products/SATANAL/gssofa.gif
This is the U.S.Naval observatory research arm.
Notice the SSTs are in very good shape,no Cool Water pools,very steady.
Also.according to KNHC(Natl'Hurricane Center) there are 'slack'winds..no shear below the STJ and a new HIGH pressure system progged for later Monday.This is a perfect environment for land/coastal MCCs to propogate
into Tropical Lows off the SE TX Coast..if the diuranals are as steady as they have been for the past few hours.It may 'Pulse' up or down,however the Dynamics are there for it to refire convective Monday.
Check discussions
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml?text
Interesting little 'hints' in those discussions...nothing conclusive,but they are watching it as well.
If anything,Sev Wx assoc with the trailing frontal boundry beneath the STJ and north end dry-slot may give NW FLA some boomers that are badly needed.Let's hope they are not the typical spring 'Dry Strikes' that set off the sawgrass fires.Twisters..possible along the edge as well in N Fla/S GA/SE Ala. albeit SPC had NO Meso MCDs in progress within the past hour...so this is my call only.
Have fun looking at all the fun pictures and charts and loops.It's what we'WxWeenies' live for!Let's see what develops,a TD near HOU would NOT be good aka 'Allison'.Let's hope this is a nice easy going E Mover over the GOMEX.If a Sfc Low gets near that Hi..it just could get interesting.
And NO,I have not been smokin' the Loco Weed or hitting the Mescal y Tequila con DOS Hornos! :o
Hasta La 'Bye-Bye'
Later,
D.J.

D.J., I've noticed the convection over extreme southern Texas/extreme northern Mexico. Very interesting indeed. I would say with it moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico and toward southeastern Alabama, southern Georgia and northern Florida, with the cold front slowly moving toward Florida and the mesoscale convective complex (MCC) moving eastward paralell to the cold front, north-central and central Florida, at least should get in on the thunderstorms with this convection.

The chances for rain this week have increased to 20 to 30 percent for most of the week.

The water temperatures over the Gulf look to be above average, just entered the second-third of May with Hurricane Season "still" just under 20 days away.

Absolutely, this will be fun to monitor.

ColdFront77 wrote:D.J., I've noticed the convection over extreme southern Texas/extreme northern Mexico. Very interesting indeed. I would say with it moving toward the western Gulf of Mexico and toward southeastern Alabama, southern Georgia and northern Florida, with the cold front slowly moving toward Florida and the mesoscale convective complex (MCC) moving eastward paralell to the cold front, north-central and central Florida, at least should get in on the thunderstorms with this convection.

The chances for rain this week have increased to 20 to 30 percent for most of the week.

The water temperatures over the Gulf look to be above average, just entered the second-third of May with Hurricane Season "still" just under 20 days away.

Absolutely, this will be fun to monitor.

National Weather Service Doppler Radar out of Corpus Christi, Texas:

Looks like Corpus NEXRAD(Next Generation Radar) has the Clear Air Mode online,long range(230+km).Brownsville has not updated an AFD in awhile,poss Weekend Shift change over.
When the Reg Crew sets up shop over the next hour or so,their eyeballs will start bleeding over the SAT IR ENH.
CNA de Mexcio(Thier Natl Wx System) has had difficulty keeping the 'Radares' online...all 'eleven' of them compared to our hundreds..including not only WSR(Wx Survellience Radar)and ours(88-D with "Build '10' Software") are true Doppler with true 'Al-Gore- ithisms! Canada,BTW has finally upgraded and installed 29 Doppler sites since 1997.
It will be interesting to see what they have to say,knowing thier perpensity for low rangeland flooding,well east of the Rio Grande Big Bend Plateau.Ranchers know well the effects of Mexican MCS/MCC or Ciclones Tropicales de Gulfo de Mexico RA++ events.They tear though there like sh!t though a Goose..and you know what they say about what is good for the Gander. :o
BTW,displace the MCC you see in NE MEX to N Sonora,S of Tucson and that is what our Monsoon can appear like on SAT IR..only...oh....1200 miles long over the Sierra Madre Montanas.This is in early July,when the 'Monsoon' an Arabic word simply describing a prevailing wind shift occurs hopefully starts to fire off the GOMEX Moisture and EPAC feed with extreme Orographic and Isentropic lift.,inverted Theta E .with Thermal Sfc temps heating the region with 104-110+F Temps...the 'Boiling Effect'.Migration occurs as the prevailing winds become adjacent to 'ELY' or 'Easterly Waves' from S Texas as they traverse in over NE to N/C Mexico..quite a trek!

Good to hear from you DJ! I hope the looong move went well.

I hope this convection does end up bringing some much needed moisture to Florida - no tropical systems yet please!