STORM2K

A River Flood Warning has been issued for the San Bernard River from
East Bernard to below Boling

At East Bernard:

Current Stage: 16.71 ft
Flood Stage: 17.0 ft
Forecast: a rise to near 18.0ft this evening and hold into Friday then
begin a slow fall. At levels above 17.0ft backwater flooding up Britt
Branch and Bratcher Slough impacts low lying areas.

At Boling:

Current Stage: 13.16 ft
Flood Stage: 18.0 ft
Forecast: a rise to near 19.0 ft this weekend with a flat crest and
hold into early next week. Backwater flooding will threaten low lying
areas along Peach Creek in Wharton County.

Flood Warning is also in effect for the Guadelupe River below Dupont. Minor flooding is in progress and will continnue for the next week or so.

Statements for other area watersheds:

Brazos River:

Above bankfull from above Bryan to below Richmond. The river will
crest and hold above bankfull into next week.

Navasota River:

Above bankfull from Lake Limestone to the confluence with the Brazos
River. The River will crest about a foot below flood stage Friday.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River:

The River is above bankfull from above Porter to below Humble. The
river will hold just above bankfull into the weekend and then begin a
slow fall.

Spring Creek:

The creek is near crest now at I-45 with overbank conditions
downstream of I-45 to the confluence with the San Jacinto River.

Luce Bayou near Huffman:

The bayou continues a steep rise and should begin to crest late
Thursday. A flood warning may be required for this watershed.

Weather Forecast:

Dry weather will continue through midday Saturday before the next
upper level trough and low combo crosses the area. Grounds will remain
near saturation due to low sun angle and cloud cover through the
period. Additional heavy rainfall Saturday night and Sunday will only
slow recessions and may produce new rises.

Thanks for posting Jeff.

Wet weather returns to the southern plains.

An active sub-tropical jet and upper level low along with rapidly increasing Gulf moisture (1.0-1.5 in PWS) spell a wet period through Tuesday for portions of the area.

Baja low is currently ejecting NE across northern Mexico heading for the Big Bend region. Local 88D's are already showing widespread light to moderate rain from Del Rio to west of Austin and expanding in coverage and intensity. Strong upper level forcing with the upper low and good isentropic lift above the cool surface layer will result in widespread rain and a few thunderstorms tonight through most of Sunday across TX and OK.

Main brunt of the energy will move off the the NE late Sunday, but a trough axis will be left along a line from Alice to Victoria and then NE through Lufkin. Continued strong southern branch will move a series of disturbances along the front with a chance of showers and thunderstorms along and south of the boundary through Wednesday.

Flash Flood Guidance is generally in the .8 to 1.2 inch range for a 3-hr period, and this will be exceeded in some locations. HPC progs seem a little low on their QPF amounts and I think a general .5 to 1.0 inches is possible with isolated 2.0 inches. Rivers remain high from rains over the past week and additional rises can be expected.

Shallow cool front will make it at least to the coast sometime Wednesday drying the air mass, however yet another low will drop into postion near Baja by weeks end with another overrunning event setting up by Friday.

Saturated grounds and lack of prolonged breaks from rainfall will be creating and increasing river flood threat over the next few weeks. Extended long range forecast show no real let up in the active southern branch and train of storm systems.

JL

Jeff,

What's your take on the weather pattern in the next few weeks? Bastardi thinks we will be wet and cool/ to maybe quite cold after the 13th. You can also see hints the NWS is uncertain to whats;s going to transpire late this coming week.

Stalled trough axis and sub-tropical jet making for a wet morning from
Victoria to Lufkin.

Rainfall overnight has averaged 1-2 inches from Hempstead to Lufkin
with totals of more than 3 inches over Polk and Trinity counties.

Current radar shows convective training along a line from Wharton to
Conroe to Lufkin with 1-hr rainfall totals within this band of .5 to
1.5 inches.

The amount of rainfall overnight across our northern counties is going
to lead to river problems. The Navasota has already begun to respond,
and the W fork of the San Jacinto will begin to rise today as heavy
rains over the headwaters reach Lake Conroe. HPC progs were way to low
on the amount of QPF overnight and I will toss out this mornings
guidance as the rainfall is more convective and heavier than expected.

An additional 1-2 inches of rain will be possible today as there is no
overall change in the pattern until Wednesday when a cold front
crosses the area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off an on
through Wednesday as disturbances within the sub-tropical jet lift the
rich moisture over the area (PWS 1.4in or greater). We get a small
break Wednesday evening and Thursday before heavy rains and
thunderstorms return Friday into the weekend. I would not be surprised
if some places pick up 5-8 inches through next weekend.

Given low Flash Flood Guidance and near saturated soil conditions much
of what falls will result in run-off. A close watch is on Spring and
Willow creeks which were hit hard last week and the W fork of the San
Jacinto River and Navasota River.

You just had to say that didn't you Jeff!!?? another 5-8 inches? Ouch!!!! Just what we don't need!!

I know you are right on with this though since I know what your job is.

<Keeps an eye out in the back yard for the Return of the Bayles Swamp Monster>

Thanx for the info.

Haven't heard anything about the Trinity River yet.

JenBayles wrote::larrow: <Keeps an eye out in the back yard for the Return of the Bayles Swamp Monster>

We got a fast 2+ inches here this morning and narrowly avoided having our Swamp drain into the pool. I just hope the next round holds off for a few hours. And yes, that French drain has been on Dave's honey-do list for..... oh..... about 12 years now!

Between my .79" Monday and 1.59" of rain yesterday we are already closing in on the 3" mark Jeff talked about with 5 days left through the weekend. A flood warning has been posted for Luce Bayou to our East.

River flood warnings are still in effect for Palestine and Lufkin.

vbhoutex wrote:Between my .79" Monday and 1.59" of rain yesterday we are already closing in on the 3" mark Jeff talked about with 5 days left through the weekend. A flood warning has been posted for Luce Bayou to our East.

Those flood warnings now include Peach Creek, the San Bernard River, the Tres Palacios River, and the Trinity River. All of these are to NE or East of the heavily populated areas of Houston Metro area but are in the Metro area. With a few more inches expected this weekend some areas may be in for some more flooding.