STORM2K

This is sad...

That will happen... but I always go with the idea that if the weather is in a lull it will then come back stronger then before!! So we can hope that once this pattern is broke that the weather will pick up...

Enjoy it while it lasts

There is a tough pattern change coming up - and the models aren't exactly doing a great job of predicting what will happen (since they aren't being consistent from one run to the next), so I imagine the CPC isn't confident enough to throw in a hazards assesment until they're sure that something may occur. If I were them, I'd put a "much below normal" temp map up across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast for next week. If the GEM or UKMET have their way, there could be some extreme cold, and (if the UKMET is right) a major phasing storm in the OV and Great Lakes.

The model guidance has had a very tough time handling pattern changes this winter with frightening regularity. Details continually being missed have caused havoc with progs and forecasts pretty much all winter. The only real clear cut event that I foresaw a week in advance was the strong cold air damming event, and 2 days later, it became clear that the moisture would indeed create problems across the SE ...

Otherwise, a nightmarish winter to forecast ...

SF

I'm sure it wont last too long. Flooding is a concern in Arizona already and if the pattern persists... it could get worse.

We're expecting ANOTHER heavy rain event starting Sunday and lingering into Monday Morning. Some flooding possible Sunday Evening and Sunday Night. We just had about 1.25" on Wednesday and I'm not sure how much area creeks can take. They are saying 2" possible.