Severe threat in Missouri bootheel Sunday
Posted: Sat Feb 19, 2005 3:07 pm
A severe wx threat appears likely across east central Missouri including the Missouri Bootheel and into parts of southern and central Illinois later Sunday. Large hail and a few tornadoes appear likely in this situation. Below is part of a disco from the SPC highlighting this threat. St Louis is included in this threat also.
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGION
ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT
INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.
WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 1 KM OR
LESS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGION
ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT LLJ FROM PORTIONS OF NRN MO INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT
INTO CNTRL IL. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.
WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 1 KM OR
LESS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES