STORM2K

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
513 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE
SYSTEM WILL PULL WARM AND HUMID AIR RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SUNCOAST ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 15000 FEET. THIS
COMBINATION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STORMS ON SUNDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-270400-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
513 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA CROSSES THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. THIS LINE WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...COASTAL RESIDENTS CAN
EXPECT A NOTICEABLE RISE IN TIDES LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT DATA SUGGEST TIDES WOULD BE UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...CAUSING OVERWASH BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SYSTEM STRENGTHEN FURTHER OR A STRONGER SQUALL
LINE DEVELOP...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO
LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...INCLUDING WATCHES AS SOON AS
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND WARNINGS THEREAFTER.

IF YOU HAVE A TORNADO SAFETY PLAN...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO
REVIEW IT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

$$

BSG

Think the best chance for tornadic development would be along the northward moving warm front, where the helicity would be enhanced.

It looks as if the flow becomes fairly unidirectional by the time the real good instability arrives with the front. I tend to agree that it looks more like a damaging wind threat to me...based on the anticipated track of the surface low.

ALhurricane wrote:Think the best chance for tornadic development would be along the northward moving warm front, where the helicity would be enhanced.

It looks as if the flow becomes fairly unidirectional by the time the real good instability arrives with the front. I tend to agree that it looks more like a damaging wind threat to me...based on the anticipated track of the surface low.

Where in florida do you expect the worst storms to form and when.

feederband wrote:

ALhurricane wrote:Think the best chance for tornadic development would be along the northward moving warm front, where the helicity would be enhanced.

It looks as if the flow becomes fairly unidirectional by the time the real good instability arrives with the front. I tend to agree that it looks more like a damaging wind threat to me...based on the anticipated track of the surface low.

Where in florida do you expect the worst storms to form and when.

any takers too hard to pinpoint?

feederband wrote:
Where in florida do you expect the worst storms to form and when.

Looking over the evening model data, the mid/late morning to mid/late afternoon period (10 a.m.- 5 p.m.) looks most favorable for severe wx....however, peninsular Florida is notorious for early and mid morning tornadoes, so I'd be alert anytime after 5:30 or 6 a.m.

As to where....strong to severe storms should fire along that warm front moving northward. While the west coast south of Cedar Key is most likely to see severe wx first, you can never rule out tornadic supercells forming farther east.

If I lived anywhere in central or southern Florida, including the Keys...tonight would be a good night to keep the NOAA wx radio on the "Alert" mode....just in case severe wx develops before dawn.

PW

Yes!! First severe weather of the year! Hopefully we get some.