STORM2K

Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

TORNADO WATCH 41 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-015-017-027-043-049-053-055-057-061-069-071-081-093-095-
097-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-127-272300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0041.050227T1540Z-050227T2300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
DESOTO GLADES HARDEE
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
MANATEE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE
ST. LUCIE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$




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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
516 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271630-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
516 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY EVENING...THEN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL
HINGE UPON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WE GET LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAINS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THIS HEATING...
RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SMALL TORNADOES AS WELL. TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY
CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST AT RISK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

HEAVY RAINS TODAY MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 7
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY
WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP
CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE
RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE FORCE
WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
CURRENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

$$

JILLSON




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The outlook at 5;16 am has only slight chance of severe t storms. Now we are under Tornado watch has conditions gotten more favorable for severe stuff since the outlook report?

apparently so

Conditions are rapidly getting worse for the central FL area. Deepening low pressure in the Gulf will make its way east and hammer parts of FL in the next 4-6 hours. 0-1KM Shear values are going through the roof with instability values that are already descent, WAA will only make it worse. This is going to be a tornado prime area today. I wouldn't doubt a large one....lookout Barometer Bob.

Brett Adair wrote:Conditions are rapidly getting worse for the central FL area. Deepening low pressure in the Gulf will make its way east and hammer parts of FL in the next 4-6 hours. 0-1KM Shear values are going through the roof with instability values that are already descent, WAA will only make it worse. This is going to be a tornado prime area today. I wouldn't doubt a large one....lookout Barometer Bob.

what about the central west coast??

Rainband wrote:

Brett Adair wrote:Conditions are rapidly getting worse for the central FL area. Deepening low pressure in the Gulf will make its way east and hammer parts of FL in the next 4-6 hours. 0-1KM Shear values are going through the roof with instability values that are already descent, WAA will only make it worse. This is going to be a tornado prime area today. I wouldn't doubt a large one....lookout Barometer Bob.

what about the central west coast??

Yes, that is going to be a major target area as these cells come inland. Alot of the tornadoes today could come from waterspouts, which could develop into larger torandoes as they head inland along the warm frontal axis.

thanks Brett. I think

Here is some of my in house mesoanaylsis from the region...

just went outside for first time today. it is kind of weird out side. seems like it will not be a good day.

Now we're up to .93" of rain and the
Barometer falling: 29.778 / 1008.4 hpa

You can never guarantee tornadoes will occur, especially intense twisters....but the conditions are primed for a significant outbreak across the peninsula this afternoon/ evening. I'm quite surprised SPC hasn't upgraded much of Florida to a moderate risk....because even IF significant tornadoes don't occur, the potential for significant and widespread wind damage is IMO high.

SouthernWx wrote:You can never guarantee tornadoes will occur, especially intense twisters....but the conditions are primed for a significant outbreak across the peninsula this afternoon/ evening. I'm quite surprised SPC hasn't upgraded much of Florida to a moderate risk....because even IF significant tornadoes don't occur, the potential for significant and widespread wind damage is IMO high.

looks like the worst of it will be to my north and south. West central coast seems to be clearing out.

It stopped raining for me at the moment. Total rain so far is 1.04"
Highest wind was 19mph at 10:14

Haven't heard any thunder today. Just windy at the moment.

Pressure at 1006

Rainband wrote:

SouthernWx wrote:You can never guarantee tornadoes will occur, especially intense twisters....but the conditions are primed for a significant outbreak across the peninsula this afternoon/ evening. I'm quite surprised SPC hasn't upgraded much of Florida to a moderate risk....because even IF significant tornadoes don't occur, the potential for significant and widespread wind damage is IMO high.

looks like the worst of it will be to my north and south. West central coast seems to be clearing out.

Heh....thats perfect just for you. Destabalization...

How far north will the warm front make it in Fla? it seems stuck around tampa and not lifting much I think the actual low will move over us and the warm sector will never get here thus just a lot of rain. However, Local mets say we have a chance of severe storms this evening in Jax-Does this seem likely.

We are clear here. Unless anything else develops we had nothing more than a bit of rain.

Yes i think it will only be rain event here. Everything seems to be staying south of me.

Looks like Ocala isn't going to get anything from this storm. Ah well.

Two Tornado Reports
PALM BAY BREVARD FL
REPORTED TOUCHDOWN DALLAM/WAKE FOREST,
POSSIBLE STRUCTIAL DAMAGE

MELBOURNE BREVARD FL
POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN JOHN RODES AND SHERIDAN (MLB)

Thanks for the update. Hope nobody was injured.