STORM2K

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
518 AM EST MON MAR 7 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
072200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-
INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
518 AM EST MON MAR 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN AREAS. A
LESSER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER JET ACTING ON A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE
TONIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO NEAR THE I 4 CORRIDOR BY
MORNING.

STORM FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN TO THE GROUND WITH STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION THE SHEAR PROVIDED BY THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES. RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY...THROUGH SUNDAY.
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A DEADLY HAZARD WITH
ANY OF THE STORMS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
CREATING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL GENERATE 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE...AND UP TO 8 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND SELF
ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

BLOTTMAN


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EST MON MAR 7 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
600 AM EST MON MAR 7 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...EXTENDED DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ENHANCE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT http://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

CAMP

00
FXUS62 KTBW 071833 CCA
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
133 PM EST MON MAR 7 2005

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WED)...THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE FRONT PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHERWISE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES AND WILL USE A BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY TONIGHT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND VERY STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL JET (> 150+ KNOTS!!) ALOFT WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINES DEVELOPS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF...MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY MORNING.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDING DATA SHOWS WIND FIELDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING
A 50-60 KNOT 850MB JET...AND A MID LEVEL 80-100 KNOT JET DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES AND
OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS THE PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES WILL GO WITH LIKELY CATEGORY FROM HERNANDO NORTH
OVERNIGHT...TAPERING BACK AS ONE MOVES SOUTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY LIKELY POPS EXPECTED ALL
AREAS IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD. TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING WEDNESDAY CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR MORE RAIN
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ADVECTS NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. MAV POPS LOOK A BIT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT...AND SEEING WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL UNDERCUT A
BIT AND DEPICT SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY (~20%) FAR NORTH...AND 30-40%
RANGE CENTRAL/SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...AND LOWER
TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT -MON)...STALLED FRONTAL OVER THE FL STRAITS
WILL PROVIDE AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THU AROUND
12Z...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA BEHIND THE OVERRUNNING
EVENT. ONE MORE VORTMAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROF
OVER THE ERN U.S. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...BRINGING A SURGE OF WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WELL INTO SAT.

SKIES SHUD CLEAR AFTER THE LAST VORTMAX MOVES THRU EARLY SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WRN GULF. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE FA INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THEN RIDGE BACK ACROSS S
FL ON MON. AS THE HIGH PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NWRLY ON SAT...TO
SWRLY EARLY SUN AND THEN SRLY SUN NIGHT THRU MON. THE SRLY WINDS WILL
BRING MORE HUMIDITY AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS.
&&


.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MY NORTHERN WATERS EARLY
ON TUESDAY...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
HELP TO INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY LATE
TONIGHT NORTHERN LEGS...THEN ALL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WIND/SEAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY TONIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS.
THE BUILDING SEAS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WAVE ACTION AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
LEADING TO HIGH SURF DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY NEED
TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
SEAS. DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WIND AND SEAS MAY AGAIN
INCREASE TOWARD SCEC OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT RANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND AND SEAS WILL
BRIEFLY DECREASE EARLY ON FRIDAY...BUT A REINFORCING FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIND/SEAS AGAIN NEARING
CAUTION OR LOW END SCA CRITERIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET OVER MY INLAND AND
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. ON
TUESDAY MOISTURE LEVEL WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
WATCHES OR FLAGS. ON WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES. AT THE MOMENT ONLY EXPECT RH'S AT OR BELOW 35% FOR
A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTION OF MY NORTHERN ZONES...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH AND JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE
330 PM FIRE WX PRODUCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 70 45 62/ 50 70 00 30
FMY 64 75 50 67/ 20 70 10 40
GIF 64 73 45 62/ 50 70 00 30
SRQ 64 69 47 63/ 30 70 00 30
BKV 60 69 37 59/ 70 60 00 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL SUNSET
FOR POLK...HARDEE...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...INLAND CHARLOTTE AND INLAND
LEE.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
60NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60NM
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCMICHAEL

Looks like a good lightning show on tap tonite .

---------Edit--------------Latest from NWS Jax

DYNAMICS ARE LOOKING PARTICULARLY GOOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC
HAS PLACED THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CAPES WILL REMAIN
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS. A 60 KNOT LLVL JET AND AN
70 TO 80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SQUALL LINE...THEN A
100+ KNOT H5 JET FOLLOWS THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SUWANNEE VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH INTRODUCTION OF LLVL WINDS AND
GULF MOISTURE. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EWD AND BE SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE BY 12Z. THE SFC LOW
EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MORNING AND INTENSIFIES...AND
RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

Yes!! Hopefully we get some action tonight.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
745 PM EST MON MAR 7 2005

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
080901-
FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
745 PM EST MON MAR 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PRODUCE A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PUSH SOUTHEAST TO
THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
CANAVERAL AND LAKE KISSIMMEE.

WHILE STORM FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR...THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH BY INITIAL ESTIMATES. ANY STORM
ACTIVITY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING THESE
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED
60 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND HAIL UP TO AN
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE NIGHT.


...FLOOD IMPACT...
THE SQUALL LINE WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN LOCAL AREAS. LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR FLOODING.


...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.


...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE EAST FLORIDA COAST...THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER AIR WITH GREATER MOISTURE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WATERSPOUTS...
ESPECIALLY AS THEY PASS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. RESIDENTS
ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MELBOURNE AREA...
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS BEFORE RETIRING FOR THE NIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
25 TO 30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

BRAGAW

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL/NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 47...

VALID 080728Z - 080930Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS CURRENT WW /47/ EXPIRES AT 09Z.

PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTINUES...
AND...BY 12Z...INTENSE WESTERLY HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO
BE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING PATTERN...EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...IS ALREADY PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT...VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS IN BAND SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
THROUGH THE GAINESVILLE AND CROSS CITY AREAS. ACTIVITY EXTENDS OFF
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO AXIS OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
CAPE. THIS MAY STILL YET SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SUGGEST TROUGH WILL TAKE ON
INCREASING NEUTRAL...THEN NEGATIVE TILT...ACROSS GEORGIA INTO THE
CAROLINAS BETWEEN 12-18Z. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INLAND
DEVELOPMENT OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA/FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS.

COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRECLUDE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS/INCREASE IN SURFACE
HEATING/AND MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...MOSTLY NORTH OF A TAMPA/ VERO
BEACH LINE.

..KERR.. 03/08/2005


ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

28918636 29428530 29398425 29478305 30008185 29948126
29018037 27938012 27438043 27378191 27678294 27648414
27708494 28108629 28278664

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-082100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
MARTIN FL-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
OKEECHOBEE FL-ORANGE FL-OSCEOLA FL-SEMINOLE FL-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
401 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
THE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER JET WILL ALSO PUSH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH WINDS ALOFT
MAY BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE BY THESE STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

BE SURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS ARE SECURED OR BROUGHT INSIDE. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MAINTAIN A
FIRM GRIP ON THE WHEEL. IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA STAY
INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

$$

Where's the rain? We've had two drops and a lot of wind.

We got a few drops of rain in Apopka, FL last night, no thunder or lightning.

Another dry day for us.

we have rain rain and more rain here - glad for it - just wish it would space itself out some!

I got .40" of rain so far today, and more to come.

2.20" here in Bonita..Still a cold 53F rain falling...Reminds me of fall in Minnesota..lol

Paul

Any information on the tornadoes that touched down in NC with that same storm system? Heard there was some damage and injuries even.

I heard that too