Moisture seepage into SE AZ by the end of the week?
Posted: Sun May 18, 2003 9:39 pm
> > Note: Kevin (a WxBud of mine who needs to join Storm2K 
) and I have talked about this for a while. If it
> > verifies, we may have a successful forecast of the earliest start
> > EVER to the monsoon season. -- Joshua
> >
> >
> >
> > AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THE
> > FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AT FIRST...THIS ALLOWS A SFC HIGH TO PUSH
> > SOUTH ALONG EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL
> > FRONT WOULD ALLOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEP INTO THE EASTERN
> > PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH
> > MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS FOR PRECIP...BUT
> > THE AREA SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY MID WEEK.
> >
> > THE PATTERN THEN GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TOWARDS THE LATTER
> > HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A STRONG
> > RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST. THE GFS SHIFTS THE HIGH CENTER
> > CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
> > MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS POOLED UP IN NM TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SE
> > AZ. ASSUMING THE PERFECT PROG SCENARIO...THE GFS WOULD BRING SOME
> > STORMS INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BY SAT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE
> > MOISTURE WOULD MAINLY BE AT MID LEVELS...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
> > THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS ASSUMES THAT
> EVERYTHING
> > GOES AS THE GFS SUGGESTS WHICH IS A POOR ASSUMPTION THIS FAR OUT.
> > THE UKMET AND ECMWF BOTH SET UP HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
> > WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO BRING THIS MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
> > THEREFORE...WILL STAY FAR AWAY FROM ANY MENTION OF STORMS IN THE
> > EXTENDED. WILL HOWEVER INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS FROM
> > TUCSON EAST AND DECREASE TEMPS AS TAD DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER
> > SFC MOISTURE.
>
>
> WElllllllllllllllllllllllll My Friend.
> Guess who?This is the Great AZ..Arizwx!Yep..hehhe.
> Now between myself and AslKahuna,we have 70+yrs experience with
> EPAC/ENSO/MX MONSOONAL FLOW Anomoly.between us we have had 5 maj
> Hurricanes ,Countless Tornadoes and so many Blizzes in the Cal/Neva
> Sierra Nevada(I'm orig from SF)it hurts.
> Ive sailed the Pacific,flown to Belize for "Keith" and seen what a
> REAL Monsoon can do.
> A 'seepage' is not abnormal,noe is it considered the Monsoon.Do you
> know the Criterium?For PHX and TUS?
> Keep up the good work.If I can help,let me know.Thx..oh you can also > post this on the Strm 2k BB if you wish.later..
> ~AZ~
Hey there DJ! I know that in TUS, it has to be a 54 degree dewpoint for 3 days straight. I'll be posting this on Storm2K right now. Here in Orange County, it's supposed to be near 80 by next weekend, which will be real nice for the holiday. See ya on the board! -- Joshua
) and I have talked about this for a while. If it
> > verifies, we may have a successful forecast of the earliest start
> > EVER to the monsoon season. -- Joshua
> >
> >
> >
> > AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES THE
> > FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AT FIRST...THIS ALLOWS A SFC HIGH TO PUSH
> > SOUTH ALONG EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL
> > FRONT WOULD ALLOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEP INTO THE EASTERN
> > PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH
> > MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS FOR PRECIP...BUT
> > THE AREA SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY MID WEEK.
> >
> > THE PATTERN THEN GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING TOWARDS THE LATTER
> > HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A STRONG
> > RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST. THE GFS SHIFTS THE HIGH CENTER
> > CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
> > MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS POOLED UP IN NM TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO SE
> > AZ. ASSUMING THE PERFECT PROG SCENARIO...THE GFS WOULD BRING SOME
> > STORMS INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BY SAT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE
> > MOISTURE WOULD MAINLY BE AT MID LEVELS...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
> > THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS ASSUMES THAT
> EVERYTHING
> > GOES AS THE GFS SUGGESTS WHICH IS A POOR ASSUMPTION THIS FAR OUT.
> > THE UKMET AND ECMWF BOTH SET UP HIGH CENTERS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
> > WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO BRING THIS MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
> > THEREFORE...WILL STAY FAR AWAY FROM ANY MENTION OF STORMS IN THE
> > EXTENDED. WILL HOWEVER INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS FROM
> > TUCSON EAST AND DECREASE TEMPS AS TAD DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER
> > SFC MOISTURE.
>
>
> WElllllllllllllllllllllllll My Friend.
> Guess who?This is the Great AZ..Arizwx!Yep..hehhe.
> Now between myself and AslKahuna,we have 70+yrs experience with
> EPAC/ENSO/MX MONSOONAL FLOW Anomoly.between us we have had 5 maj
> Hurricanes ,Countless Tornadoes and so many Blizzes in the Cal/Neva
> Sierra Nevada(I'm orig from SF)it hurts.
> Ive sailed the Pacific,flown to Belize for "Keith" and seen what a
> REAL Monsoon can do.
> A 'seepage' is not abnormal,noe is it considered the Monsoon.Do you
> know the Criterium?For PHX and TUS?
> Keep up the good work.If I can help,let me know.Thx..oh you can also > post this on the Strm 2k BB if you wish.later..
> ~AZ~
Hey there DJ! I know that in TUS, it has to be a 54 degree dewpoint for 3 days straight. I'll be posting this on Storm2K right now. Here in Orange County, it's supposed to be near 80 by next weekend, which will be real nice for the holiday. See ya on the board! -- Joshua
