STORM2K

...Ern tx/srn ar/la/ms/al...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Rockies and close-off in the western part of the southern plains during the day 3 period. This will spread strong ascent across the region favorable for widespread thunderstorm development during the day. In response to the upper-trough...a low-level jet will organize Saturday across the northern Gulf of Mexico spreading abundant moisture into the gulf coastal states. Sfc dewpoints of 65 to 70 f will aid destabilization with moderate instability likely from east TX extending eastward to southern Mississippi Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show strong vertical shear across the region which suggests an environment favorable for supercells. Backed low-level winds...strong 850 mb and steep mid-level lapse rates will increase the potential for tornadoes...large hail and wind damage as a large cluster of storms develops Saturday afternoon in east Texas/western Louisiana and spreads eastward into southern Mississippi. Portions of the outlook may need to be upgraded to a moderate risk in later outlooks.

Dan Meador
KHOU-TV


This is from one of our local mets here in Houston... He always keeps us on top of the great weather that might be heading this way!!

That is SPC's Day 3 Discussion

Oh... im sorry... Well its what Jeff said!! lol... Still looks like Saturday could be quite interesting!

Dan is also a member of S2K!

OK.. well now I feel like an idiot... lol...

Feeling is that moisture may be shallow and cap intensity strong. No models really show any significant convection over SE TX, but have it mainly over NE TX, LA and into the SE US.

Given that the cap is already fairly strong on the AM soundings and winds above 850mb will be SW off the hot Mexican mountians it may be hard to overcome the CINH Saturday.

However, if we get more sun than forecast things could get going and severe would be a good bet.

Jeff,

Whats your take on Dallas-Ft Worth severe potential tomorrow evening? I will NNE of Fort Worth near Grapevine during the holiday weekend.

N TX severe threat will be possible with SB convection Friday evening over the SE half of N TX. Cold front should be through the N 1/2 before storms fire.

After Friday evening increasing WAA above the cold pool due to the next trough dropping into the W US may result in numerous elevated thunderstorms. Elevated instability would support hail some of which may be near severe levels.

Overall rain chances are high, but severe threat is fairly minimal.

Sunday will probably be raw as upper low crosses N TX and low level CAA is in place. Light rain and highs in the 50's is likely.

YankeeGirl thanks for the kind words! The mets at the SPC are way smarter than me!