STORM2K

When the SPC issues a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) watch, take heed! Supercells are rapidly developing along the coastal waters of all 4 states.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOTHAN ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVING NWD THRU WATCH AREA
AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS CAP WEAKENS FURTHER
ACROSS WATCH WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TOWARD EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Uh-oh...Here we go

Strangely though noaa radio and tv stations dont stress the fact that it is a PDS watch.

Looks like a deadly night coming up. We got to get through easter Sunday with a tornado outbreak as well. Everyone be safe and when a warning is issued, don't wait to see the tornado coming. At night you won't see it coming. Take shelter in the lowest inner most portion of a well built structure away from windows and avoid mobile homes.

Jim

WXBUFFJIM wrote:Looks like a deadly night coming up. We got to get through easter Sunday with a tornado outbreak as well. Everyone be safe and when a warning is issued, don't wait to see the tornado coming. At night you won't see it coming. Take shelter in the lowest inner most portion of a well built structure away from windows and avoid mobile homes.

Jim

I think tomorrow is going to be worse than today. High risk looks likely.

jkt21787 wrote:

WXBUFFJIM wrote:Looks like a deadly night coming up. We got to get through easter Sunday with a tornado outbreak as well. Everyone be safe and when a warning is issued, don't wait to see the tornado coming. At night you won't see it coming. Take shelter in the lowest inner most portion of a well built structure away from windows and avoid mobile homes.

Jim

I think tomorrow is going to be worse than today. High risk looks likely.

Wow--for who?

People need to limit their outdoor events this weekend,these storm are moving very rapidly and can arrive with little or no warning.Tonight you might want to keep your wx radios on ALARM MODE,or keep it on TWC.I hate night storms,especially when tornadoes are involved.

I think the highest risk would be from Nashville to Atlanta to Birmingham. These areas will have the best low level flow fields with east to southeasterly winds ahead of the surface low. As long as there is a reasonable amount of clearing behind tonight's complex of storms, this will be the area that sees the highest risk. They won't issue a high risk until they are able to now-cast a little closer to the time that storms would develop.

What do you all think will happen over the Carolinas tomorrow. The SPC has me in a moderate risk, but i'm thinking that it won't verify.

From Arkansas TV met...

....Easter Sunday looks even worse for tornadoes. SPC is very concerned about violent, long track tornadoes in a corridor from around Corinth, Ms northeast to Huntsville, Al then north to Nashville, TN. SPC has a "moderate" risk for a good part of Tennessee. Have no doubt that this area will be upgraded to a "High" risk by late tonight or tomorrow morning. If you have friends of family in this area, call them and make sure that they are aware of the weather threat. I do, and I will be calling them this afternoon.

In a slight risk for here tomorrow evening and night.

From Birmingham's James Spann...

SPC is greatly concerned about the possibility of damaging, long track tornadoes over northeast Alabama, and into Georgia and South Carolina tomorrow. We agree, and I expect SPC to upgrade the moderate risk to a high risk at some point.

looks like the risk will stay just moderate here in N Fla?

There's no such thing as "just" moderate - these are rare, but the high risk is reserved for only the most dangerous outbreaks of tornadoes and/or extreme winds (like 100mph). That may very well occur along the warm front and just ahead of the surface low - which will head towards central or western KY tomorrow afternoon.

Moderate risks (and even slight) indicate the possibility of very dangerous weather as well, so don't ever take them lightly.

Meanwhile, the Ozarks may have a snowy Easter as powerful vertical motions overpower the warmer air at the surface. I doubt much would stick, but there should be a few reports of snow tomorrow back in AR and MO.

A moderate risk is definitely a rare situation that occurs only a few times per year in alot of cases. This threat looks dangerous and significant. Long tracked deadly tornadoes are likely today in southeast Louisiana, south central Mississippi, and south central Alabama. TGhat deadly tornado threat shifts east into Alabama, north Florida, Georgia, Tennesee, and the Carolinas on easter Sunday. Tornadoes with destruction is possible. The present PDS tornado watch is up until 9 PM CST, but maybe extended and also cover a wider area later today into tonight as storms continue to rage all night long. The worse is yet to come as storms could actually intensify further overnight. I urge folks living down south to be safe and know that your life is more important than your property at this stage of the game. If a tornado or severe tstm warning is issued for your area go to the lowest floor of a well built structure preferably a basement or a center hallway or closet and stay away from windows. Avoid mobile homes as they are the first structures to likely be destroyed in severe weather situations. A well built structure such as a concrete or brick built structure is the best place to take cover. If in a car and a tornado is near, never outrun the tornado, take cover in a ditch and don't take cover under overpasses either.

Will watch this all weekend. Definitely looks like the top ten severe weather outbreaks of the year with deadly tornadoes, baseball to softball size hail possible, and 80 mph gusts. Folks north and west of PDS TORNADO WATCH #87, expect another tornado watch to be issued to include couth central Mississippi and central Louisiana. This too could potentially be a PDS watch. It will likely get much worse this evening and through overnight tonight and into easter Sunday. Stay safe everybody.

Jim

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FORT
POLK LOUISIANA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN MS AND
NWRN LA. WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND EXPECTED
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SRN LA THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WELL AFTER
DARK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

Rapid supercell development underway along most of the Gulf Coast region - cloud to ground lightning strikes have increased markedly over the last hour and a half. Remember, lightning and flooding are always dangerous with any thunderstorm (as if that wasn't obvoius) but this is a very dangerous situation in the South.

Any storm in the Gulf states would be capable of producing a tornado today, however, the image below best defines the low-level boundary along which the highest likelihood of storm development exists. The area within the blue contours denotes regions of high surface vorticity - south of this boundary winds are more southerly and dewpoints are in the mid 70's. North of it, winds are more easterly with dewpoints in the mid 60's to near 70. The high moisture content along and south of this boundary, in combination with the vast amount of rotation in the atmosphere near the surface, will act to amplify tornado development this afternoon, evening and overnight.

Got some huge hail reports including softball size hail in northwest Florida
1730 425 MILTON SANTA ROSA FL

3062 8703 INTERSECTION OF HWY. 89/87..
CRACKED TRUCK WINDOWS (MOB)

There was baseball sized hail in Covington and Geneva, Alabama today as well and it will get much worse tonight.

Long tracked violent tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph, and hail up to softball sized is likely today into tonight and again on sunday too.

Jim

Jim, isn't hail such as SOFTBALLS somewhat rare in Florida? If it is rare, that is amazing!

We had some showers move through a little while ago but now it seems like most of the storms are off to our north and east. Looks like we will luck out and not see any severe weather tonight either. Stay safe everyone east of here those storms look NASTY .

This is my first PDS since November 10, 2002. I cannot remember one where there wasn't at least one violent tornado. STAY SAFE EVERYONE!!! Some of the most intense storms I've ever seen are down in South Alabama right now... Larger than softball sized hail reported in the Florida Panhandle earlier. I've got the NOAA Weather Radio on if/when I go to sleep.