STORM2K

...OK/ERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER OK. PRONOUNCED FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL PROCEED EWD AND BEGIN
TO ACT ON VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SERN OK/NRN TX BY AFTERNOON.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP
EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN FCST INSTABILITY
AND MAGNITUDE OF ASCENT DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND AIDING
IN EROSION OF CAPPING INVERSION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR.
AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...AND AN UPGRADE TO MDT
RISK...WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS FCST DETAILS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED.

I guess it was so much fun on Sunday that we need to do it all over again.

JuliannaMKH wrote:I guess it was so much fun on Sunday that we need to do it all over again.

We were VERY lucky Sunday. No confirmed tornadoes(the Montgomery damage was from wind). Considering we were under a PDS Watch for over 24 hours straight(outside of a window early Sunday), I'm amazed we didn't have violent tornadoes with deaths and injuries.

Ohhh let it extend a little bit more northwest to REALLY include me!!!

Looks like the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley are under the gun for Wednesday, too.

Another chance for thunderstorms here in NC come Friday and Friday night.

Eric

I agree. We were extrodinarily lucky that the situation wasn't much worse and there was no loss of life. I had heard that the investigation indicated the damage in east Montgomery was from straight line winds. I know on WSFA's Sunday night newscast they showed some brief footage of a tornado from the Deer Creek subdivision. It must not have caused any damage and that's a good thing.

I get twichy sometimes about severe weather on work days. The building I work in was lucky to survive Ivan and it has some roofing and drainage issues. There is really no where to go but outside in the ditch if the sky starts dropping tornados on us.

I believe that they are on target with this next system. Looks as if moisture values across my region in Alabama will be prime for some severe weather this event. Also, the warm frontal zone will be just a bit further north which will leave much of the area in the warm sector with deepening low pressure across TN by late Thursday. Looks as if some significant tornadoes will be possible with this system. I am willing to bet this system won't be a bustola....I would say if you live in AR/LA/MS/AL/TN/GA/NC/SC go over your tornado safety plans NOW!

Looks a little questionable on instability and low level shear for tornadoes. May see more of a large hail and wind threat