STORM2K

...SERN CONUS...
CORRIDOR OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS TN VALLEY SWWD OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/ERN LA...
CONTINUING REGIME FROM LATTER PART OF DAY-1 PERIOD. REF DAY-1
OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. AS LEADING MID/UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND EJECTS
AWAY FROM AREA...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS/COUPLES DURING
EARLY-MID MORNING...LLJ WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF AREA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E DURING AFTERNOON
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH APCH OF SECOND UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH
LOCATION/MODE OF PREFRONTAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
ATTM...BECAUSE OF LIKELY DEPENDENCE ON LOCATION AND CHARACTER OF
MESO-BETA SCALE BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM MORNING ACTIVITY.
THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM EVEN MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER
PROBABILITY CORRIDOR FOR NOW...AND LEAVE OPEN POSSIBILITY OF
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS.

MESO-ALPHA TO SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FROM E TX ACROSS SERN
STATES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND CONTINUAL MODIFICATION/ENRICHMENT OF MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW AIR
MASS. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS 60S F
CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG FROM E TX ACROSS
MS DELTA REGION. 60-65 KT EFFECTIVE AND 0-6 KM SHEARS INDICATE BOTH
SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO MODES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER PROGS REASONABLY
INDICATE RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR
DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE EXCEPT IN
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE ELY COMPONENT IS
POSSIBLE. STRONG SFC HEATING IS LIKELY...YIELDING WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS THAT SHOULD INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAILSTONES TO REACH SFC. AFTERNOON/EVENING TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FOCI.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY COALESCE INTO MCS AND MOVE E FROM ARKLATEX
AREA TOWARD AL/GA...WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL TOWARD GULF
COAST. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS ALL NIGHT.