STORM2K

Strong surface low continues to deepen over W OK this morning with gusty south winds over much of TX and OK transporting a moist air mass northward. Surface dewpoints in the lower 60's now extend into S and SE OK with mid to even upper 60 degree dewpoints across the coastal bend and SE TX.

Dry line is currently west of a line from Fort Worth to Austin to Del Rio and starting to head east. Capping remains strong over most of the warm sector with 450 to 250 J/kg of CINH. Numerous stations will do a special 18Z sounding to sample the envirnoment in the risk area.

Strong 850mb low level jet of 40-50kts will continue to transport moisture northward into E TX and OK although the best surge will be across LA and AR where PWS of 1.2-1.3 can be found moving ashore near Lake Charles. Heating will boost CAPE values to near 3000 J/kg over N TX just ahead of the dry line by mid afternoon with a gradual weakening of the capping inversion. Storms should develop by mid to late afternoon from KS southward into N TX as dry line presses east and air mass becomes unstable and weakly capped. Given the shear in place thunderstorms should quickly organize into lines across KS and OK and spread E with a severe wind and hail threat. Further south over S OK and N TX, more capping and somewhat limited moisture will likely result in more scattered development and maybe a few supercells. Main threat here will be very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Storms should greatly increase after dark over LA and AR as dynamics and dry line meet better moisture over those regions.

Over SE and C TX air mass will become unstable by late afternoon with 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE, however air mass will be strongly capped. Heating may be enough for a few parcels to breech the cap over C TX along the dry line with storms moving toward College Station and Huntsville this evening. South of that line I expect little if any development due to very shallow moisture and strong capping, although a few showers under the cap will be possible. Will also have to keep an eye on moisture advection as more than forecast could weaken the cap more than expected

"gusty south winds?" Bah! It's a mere whisper of a breeze!

*sarcasm*


Nice info, Jeff!

When is the best time Omaha Nebraska will see severe wx?

Windy here and looks yucky...

Where do ya live?

weather watch likely over the next hour for parts of OK and N TX. visible images show rapidly developing Cu and TCu along the surface dry line from near Fort Worth to E of Norman to just E of OKC.

Air mass is being heated and inhibition has been removed so storms should fire shortly along the dry line clearly noted in visible images. CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are supported over much of N TX and E OK ahead of the dry line where dewpoints have risen into the lower 60's. Steep lapse rates and 50 kts of shear will help to organized storms into lines and segments quickly the the severe threat rapidly transitioning into a hail and wind threat.

Southward over C and SE TX PWS have managed to climb into the 1.2 in range over a large part of SE TX and capping has greatly weakened from this morning. May see a few thunderstorms develop along the dry line from near Waco to E of Austin by late afternoon and then spread E late this evening.

Severe threat will continue if not increase overnight across LA and AR where better moisture profiles will be found.

Mod. risk is now in place for the C Gulf coast on Wed. where widespread severe weather will be possible.

TORNADO WATCH FOR NTX UNTIL 9PM CST. Nothing on visible radar, but sun is breaking through the clouds and winds are very breezy with lots of humidity. Looks like I'll be spotting some Thunder Boomers tonight!!!

ETXHAMXYL wrote:TORNADO WATCH FOR NTX UNTIL 9PM CST. Nothing on visible radar, but sun is breaking through the clouds and winds are very breezy with lots of humidity. Looks like I'll be spotting some Thunder Boomers tonight!!!

Yep Yep Be safe everyone..

And no doubt the cap over Houston will hold and I'll still be dragging the sprinkler out to the back 40..... Phooey!

I already watered the lawn this morning... Although on the raod today while I was running errands, I had about 10 drops hit the winshield...might have just been someone cleaning their winshield....?

Yankeegirl....I have seen the same thing. Their are patches of very light drizzle around the Houston Metro today.

Maybe we will get some rain and thunder later, it is sooooo humid out!! My whole body wants to "frizz"

Visible images show rapidly developing Cu towers over C TX W of Austin and Temple where max heating appears to be breaking the cap.

Severe thunderstorm including supercells may develop shirtly W of I-35 from just SW of Austin to SW of Waco along a well defined dry line.

Eastward movement of this activity is questionable due to cap intensity over SE TX.

Northward squall line cotninues to develop and intensify over NE TX and SE OK. Very large hail and damaging winds are likely with this line as it moves across the ARLATX this evening.

Not sure how much we'll get here in south central Louisiana. We have a 60% chance of rain after midnight so hopefully we can get some. Haven't had much rain in the past 3 weeks and I turned on the sprinklers for the first time this year Sunday. Bring on the rain!

Nasty looking squall line developing from near Waco TX to NW of Austin. Just phone confirmed large TCu WNW of Austin so dry line is in fact backbuilding.

Given latest RUC guidance it appears capping over the N sections of SE TX has weakened enough to allow this line to impact the area. Question remains how far SE these storms will make it and where the stronger capping lies. Overall feeling is that area N of a Giddings to Conroe to Liberty line may be impacted this evening.

I expect a new WW south of WW 125 soon.

jeff wrote:Eastward movement of this activity is questionable due to cap intensity over SE TX.

KILL THE CAP! KILL THE CAP!!!

Just got some good shots of TCU on dry line W of Austin. I will send them to yankeegirl to post here.

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch replaces Tornado Watch 125 and is extended far to the SW due to backbuilding over C TX.

Long squall line with LEWPs and bows noted from E of Waco TX to Austin TX to N of San Antonio. Storms are starting to move off the dry line and spread ESE into decent low level inflow as cold front surges into C TX.

Strong jet streak over C TX along with an unstable air mass should continue to drive storms well into the night across much of E TX. Cap intensity increases over the coastal plain from KVCT to KIAH and it remains in question how far S the storms will survive.

Watch is in effect until 400am which is a long time considering the small E/W coverage of the watch area (roughly from I-35 to 60 miles W of Houston. Storms are fairly fast movers (30-40mph) so SPC expects them to weaken or will have to hoist a new watch E of the current watch by early AM.

There have been numerous reports of large damaging hail W of Austin and around Temple. Severe hail and wind will remain the primary threats and a few extreme hail reports will be possible.

I can confirm some pea- to marble-sized hail in north Austin ... like here at my house!!

We've had two hail events in the last two weeks and both have come from lines of storms literally forming right on top of us or just to our west.

Already an interesting severe weather season for those of us in Austin.

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Michael