STORM2K

I cannot tell what the mets are trying to say. In a NWS special weather statement there is a mod. risk of severe weather monday and monday night but the forecast calls for risk of showers and thunderstorms monday after 1 pm and through the night. Are we at risk for bad weather like last week are not?
Thanks,
Tim

From what our local mets and TWC says in 4 minute "Special Weather Statement" that ran across the bottom of the screen it seems as though we will have a repeat of last week and the week before.....we don't need the rain right now, we had enough already for this month.

Mary

Local New Orleans mets are saying that the weather will probably go downhill tomorrow during the early afternoon hours from SW LA. to SW MS. Looks like Baton Rouge will be under the gun. Its not written in stone, but it looks like you'll have a higher risk than those of us in far east Southeastern LA. Keep your eyes and ears open to the latest updates beginning early tomorrow morning.

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
400 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING BRING A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...AND COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY MORNING FROM THE BATON ROUGE AREA TOWARD SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE MCCOMB AREA...THEN INTENSIFY AND SPREAD EASTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION OR CABLE TELEVISIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

$$





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Looks like we'll be under the gun big time tomorrow afternoon. It looks as though the worst weather might come through in a squall line which seems to limit the tornadic threat.

So tommorow afternoon and night is the risk time? Somehow I was thinking that it was tonight (late) and early am tomorrow. Thanks for clearing it up.
Tim

Not sure how much we'll get out of this here in Lafayette, the southern portion of the line is looking very thin lately. I'd be surprised if we se over .50" of rain today unless some major new development occurs.