At least he/she's honest!!!
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 4:47 pm
This is one hilarious forecast discussion from the Des Moines NWS office:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005
.DISCUSSION...
THIS IS REALLY GETTING MESSY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPPING FASTER
THAN THE MARKET. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IT WILL RAIN SOMEWHERE IN IA
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS AWFUL.
MODEL COMPARISONS ARE AWFUL. I THINK THERE WAS MORE DAMAGE CONTROL
PUT INTO THIS FORECAST THAN THERE WAS METEOROLOGICAL THEORY. BUT THE
SHOW MUST GO ON AND THIS WILL SOON BECOME THE MIDNIGHT FORECASTER/S
NIGHTMARE. IN THE SHORT TERM...OVERALL PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
CONTINUE. WEAK CDFNT IS NOW APPROACHING EXTREME NW IA. STILL BELIEVE
THIS FEATURE WILL EASE INTO N IA LATER TONIGHT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT A BIT MORE CONVECTION COULD FORM
ALONG THE FRONT THAN ANTICIPATED AND DRIVE IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS NOW HAS FLIPPED WITH THE ETA AND BRINGS IT FURTHER SOUTH AND
PERSISTS IT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL HAVE INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT NW AND CENTRAL AND NORTH SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
BETTER SATURDAY BUT STILL FAIRLY WEAK WITH CAPES AOB 600J/KG.
THETA-E RIDGE DOES POKE NE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE
WE DO GET SOME WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN WEAK CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AND DAY SATURDAY AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SUNDAY MAY
HAVE THE BEST BET TO BE DRY OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IF THE WEAK FRONT
DOES INDEED WASH OUT OR LIFT NORTH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT TEMPS COOLER
NORTH SATURDAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT
TEMPS WITH WARMEST MOS SUNDAY WITH MORE SUN AND TOASTY H850 TEMPS.
THINGS START TO GET REAL FUZZY BY MONDAY AS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN
HINTED AT THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH GIVEN INSTABILITY OVER US BY
MONDAY HAVE OPTED TO ADD LOW POPS. IF THIS FEATURE IS FOR REAL...
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POTENTIAL MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER MIXING POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH MONDAY SO WILL
STILL HEDGE TO THE WARMER SIDE. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS A CRAP
SHOOT. MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE FRONT THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE INTO IA TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGER TIL FRIDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE OPTED NEAR A DGEX SOLUTION THOUGH FEEL THE FRONT MAY
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO HAVE BEGUN TO TREND TEMPS UPWARD. HARD
TO PINPOINT BEST TIME PERIOD FOR POPS SO WENT WITH THE WHITEWASH
APPROACH. GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DUE TO
THE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...THIS BOUNDARY COULD
INDEED AFFECT THE CWA FOR 3 OR 4 DAYS. 12Z GFS REALLY SETTING UP A
CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR THURS/FRIDAY. GOOD THING IS IT
WONT END UP EXACTLY HOW THE GFS DEPICTS AND THE SOLUTION WILL CHANGE
SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE NOW AND THEN.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
JAW
