STORM2K

Numerous reports of very large hail continue this evening... up to baseball size even. One report of an injury has occurred. These storms are also putting down unbelievable amounts of rain. Stay safe across Southern and Eastern Nebraska this evening!

Tornado warning for Thayer Co. in s-cent Neb. Looking at base vel from the Hastings radar you can see where the rotation is with this storm. Looks like a wild night in se-ern Neb as well as in the panhandle of Tx.

New Severe T-Storm Watch until 2am CDT also.

Very noisy here at the current time: thunder, weather alarms ,etc

This is really an impressive little system feeding off the instability and excellent shear profiles. TOnight's convection continues to wrap into the vort max, and it makes sense to me that the latent heat release will further enhance the short wave/MCV spinning out there now.

I must admit I'm shocked the SPC took most of WI out of the slight risk for tomorrow - the setup looks quite similar to what is happening out in NE, KS and IA now for parts of MN, WI and IL tomorrow, although CAPE may not be quite as high. Skies should remain clear enough for temps to get into the 70's to near 80 ahead of the MCS with dewpoints possibly in the middle to upper 50's so there will be instability, just a question of how much and how localized it will be. I've seen many times where convectively-induced/enhanced vort maxes can excplode with supercells by late morning...almost in a surprise to forecasters...so I'm keeping an eye on this. I also think the short wave is compact enough that the models aren't picking up on it's true strength - the 00Z NAM is much stronger with it now as it moves over the top of the ridge tomorrow. Shear looks to be quite favorable for supercells tomorrow to the south and southeast of the vort max and it's surface low, and if winds back to the S or SSE enough the tornado risk tomorrow will be rather high in WI and IL. THe lake breeze boundary may also focus intense vorticity near the surface for a few spinups. Things will probably re-congeal into a slow-moving MCS with another 50 kt low-level jet developing after dark Tuesday evening (much like will be happening tonight). Heavy rain may also be a problem as the system slows down and interacts with the cold front to it's north...luckily it's been dry enough that hydro problems should be nil outside of some very isolated flash flooding. I'll be watching it closely at home and work - looks like a fun day!

NEWeatherguy wrote:New Severe T-Storm Watch until 2am CDT also.

Very noisy here at the current time: thunder, weather alarms ,etc

Ehh Bri, it wasn't that noisy. I was pretty dissappointed in what we got. Yes, we got some lightning and thunder, but it was far from impressive...I watched most of it miss us west and easy all night from work, lol.

AirmaN wrote:

NEWeatherguy wrote:New Severe T-Storm Watch until 2am CDT also.

Very noisy here at the current time: thunder, weather alarms ,etc

Ehh Bri, it wasn't that noisy. I was pretty dissappointed in what we got. Yes, we got some lightning and thunder, but it was far from impressive...I watched most of it miss us west and easy all night from work, lol.

Yeah, it was fairly quite here in SW Omaha. Nice little lightning show to the west and some rainshowers. About 3am we did get a round of 1/2" hail. That loud "pinging" against the window sure woke me up.

We'll see how tonight goes. Tomorrow looks interesting with the SPC outlooks giving strong indications for the local area.

In a sense (being the weather nut I am), it's a shame that Omaha, mesoscale-climatologically speaking, is less likely to receive thunderstorms than the rest of the state. The downsloping thanks to the Platte and Missouri Rivers hurts our changes.

Nonetheless, looking at the latest radar, a line of rainshowers and thunderstorms, with 50-60 dbZ max, are forming from Denison to between Nortfolk and Columbus.

Well, the Offutt observer is seeing some towering cumulus off to the north. It's getting interesting...


You can see the TCU on the Gretna webcam, which looks toward the NW.

Eppley is reporting the towering cumulus from the east to southeast.
Offutt has the towering cumulus from the east to south with cumulonimbus from the north through the east. A few nasty cells due north of Omaha, along the Missouri River, have popped up. Still fairly humid outside...

Well... taking a look at the local TAFs, Eppley is definately looking at the thunderstorm potential.

AMD KOMA 200103Z 200124 15006KT P6SM SCT040 BKN080
TEMPO 0105 2SM TSRA BKN030CB
FM0500 14011KT P6SM BKN050
TEMPO 0508 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA BKN025CB
FM0800 09010KT 5SM BR OVC020
TEMPO 0812 3SM -RA BR OVC012
FM1200 06010KT 3SM BR SCT008 OVC018
FM1700 07009KT P6SM BKN030;

Offutt has a little different story. Looks like the forecasters that are responsible for Offutt (located near St. Louis) are thinking there will be a high threat for large hail and winds. My personally feeling is this isn't the more very scenario, but it's not too far-fetched.

KOFF 200202 25005KT 9999 VCTS SCT060CB BKN080 BKN250 QNH2974INS
TEMPO 0407 16025G40KT 3200 TSRAGR OVC025CB
BECMG 0607 15010G15KT 8000 -SHRA OVC020 QNH2980INS
BECMG 1011 10004KT 9999 NSW SCT020 BKN200 QNH2983INS
BECMG 1617 06010G15KT 9999 SCT020 BKN250 QNH2986INS
BECMG 0001 06015G20KT 9999 SCT030 QNH2983INS T24/00Z T14/12Z;

Man that squall ling moving throgh w-ern Neb is VERY impressive. Impressive bow echo feature as well as cyclonic rotation along the n-ern edge and anti-cyclonic rotation along the s-ern edge.