Monsoon Outlook
Posted: Mon May 02, 2005 4:29 pm
My discussion of factors expected to affect the 2005 monsoon in SE AZ and the outlook for the monsoon onset and effectiveness is posted on my homepage at http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/aslkahuna
Click on Got To Potpourri and in Potpourri click on Special Topics, or if you
don't want the hassle just add /specialt.htm to the above URL.
Words of advice. I adhere strictly to the scientific definition of a monsoon therefore I consider only ONE monsoon during the Summer and not a multitude like the media does. Secondly, the discussion though not overly technical is lengthy. Thirdly, the outlook is specifically for SE AZ though it can be extrapolated for the rest of the State however, I use somewhat different criteria for monsoon onset than does NWS (incidentally, the monsoon tends to start a bit earlier in SE AZ than it does for NW AZ). We shall review abd update this outlook if later events dictate though this will be the only one I will verify at the end of the monsoon since updates don't count as forecasts.
Steve
Click on Got To Potpourri and in Potpourri click on Special Topics, or if you
don't want the hassle just add /specialt.htm to the above URL.
Words of advice. I adhere strictly to the scientific definition of a monsoon therefore I consider only ONE monsoon during the Summer and not a multitude like the media does. Secondly, the discussion though not overly technical is lengthy. Thirdly, the outlook is specifically for SE AZ though it can be extrapolated for the rest of the State however, I use somewhat different criteria for monsoon onset than does NWS (incidentally, the monsoon tends to start a bit earlier in SE AZ than it does for NW AZ). We shall review abd update this outlook if later events dictate though this will be the only one I will verify at the end of the monsoon since updates don't count as forecasts.
Steve
