#3 Postby jeff » Fri May 13, 2005 10:31 am
I was about to comment on this this morning and got busy with other things.
Models are in good agreement with MCS formation this afternoon/evening on the S and E ends of the cold pool from last night's MCS. This should put the region of N and NC TX under the gun this evening into the overnight.
Low level inflow has been increasing the moisture profiles this morning over most of TX with dewpoints in the mid 60's to lower 70's. MCS or squall line should be ongoing Saturday AM from N of Waco to near Lufkin moving SE or even S around a building ridge over Mexico. No model really forecast this system to make it into SE TX (maybe northern counties), however it may drop a strong outflow boundary into the region. This boundary could serve as a focus for additional development Sat PM over the area with the potential for another MCS or squall line Sat night. Timing of weak S/W's in the flow aloft and extremely difficult meso-scale forecasting with respect to boundary locations and timing is resulting in a poor forecast confidence and fairly low POP values at this time. As these features become better defined rain chances for certain periods will need to be raised or lowered.
Sorry I cannot be any more specific than that for right now, but when dealing with the meso-scale you take it hour by hour.
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