STORM2K

If anything? Any comments on what the NWS is thinking? To mow or not to mow, that is the question...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131433
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THINGS CHANGE BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS AN MCS (POSSIBLY IN A WEAKENING STAGE) HEADS TOWARD OUR AREA FROM NORTH TEXAS. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. 42/35

Good question!

I was about to comment on this this morning and got busy with other things.

Models are in good agreement with MCS formation this afternoon/evening on the S and E ends of the cold pool from last night's MCS. This should put the region of N and NC TX under the gun this evening into the overnight.

Low level inflow has been increasing the moisture profiles this morning over most of TX with dewpoints in the mid 60's to lower 70's. MCS or squall line should be ongoing Saturday AM from N of Waco to near Lufkin moving SE or even S around a building ridge over Mexico. No model really forecast this system to make it into SE TX (maybe northern counties), however it may drop a strong outflow boundary into the region. This boundary could serve as a focus for additional development Sat PM over the area with the potential for another MCS or squall line Sat night. Timing of weak S/W's in the flow aloft and extremely difficult meso-scale forecasting with respect to boundary locations and timing is resulting in a poor forecast confidence and fairly low POP values at this time. As these features become better defined rain chances for certain periods will need to be raised or lowered.

Sorry I cannot be any more specific than that for right now, but when dealing with the meso-scale you take it hour by hour.

Thanks for your input! I'm thinking I'll take advantage of my half day off today and chill with a Corona by the pool, and take my chances on mowing tomorrow mornin. Gee - what a choice!

putting on my chase helmet now

*vb reminds self to take camera to College Station tonight in case oppurtunity to chase presents itself*

vbhoutex wrote:*vb reminds self to take camera to College Station tonight in case oppurtunity to chase presents itself*

All Captin has is cheap box camera, but will do the best he can!

Numerous tornadic supercells ongoing now over the SE TX panhandle and NW TX area.

Tornadoes, extreme hail, and damaging winds are likely wihtin Tornado Watchbox region. Cells should gradually congeal into an MCS and track across N into C TX overnight fed by increasing low level inflow.

NOTE: given deep influx of high PW air into N TX and potential for training HP supercells a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for the N 1/3rd of N TX including the DFW area.