Moderate Risk issued for E. Colo., SW Neb, and W. Kansas
Posted: Tue May 24, 2005 12:38 pm
Code: Select all
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND WRN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME SERN VA/ERN NC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NM NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE ERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. BETWEEN THIS RIDGE...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN THE PACIFIC NW...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...AN E/W FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA WNWWD INTO OK...WHERE IT INTERSECTS A REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT MCS LOCATED IN SERN OK AND NRN TX. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW...WAS
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND EXTENDED SWWD INTO NRN CO.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
GFS/NAM IN AGREEMENT OF STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING SEWD AS AN MCS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
ERN CO IS SUNNY...ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER. HOWEVER...EXPECT MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION WILL WAIT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEATING AND
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE SHOULD SET STAGE FOR INITIATION NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY AND ERN CO. WLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. COUPLED WITH
STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEAR 50 KT.
THIS SHEAR PLUS MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO. HOWEVER...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE...AND WITH THE RESULTANT COLD POOL RESULTING IN
THE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN KS THIS EVENING. LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE AS IT
MOVES INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AROUND 06Z.
...ERN OK/AR LA AND MS...
CURRENT MCS OVER SRN KS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...THOUGH A MCV WAS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR EAST OF ICT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SEWD INTO WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE MCV ACROSS EXTREME ERN OK/WRN AR..MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK CONVECTION HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND STRENGTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...COLD POOL PUSHING SEWD FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
MAY AID CAUSE STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS...WITH WIND DAMAGE
MORE LIKELY AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS AR AND POSSIBLY INTO
LA/MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ARE MOVING SWD ACROSS VA AS VORTICITY
MAX ROTATES SEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES...A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EXTREME SERN VA/ERN NC AGAIN TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MEAGER...THOUGH STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS.
...CENTRAL FL...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND A BAND OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DESPITE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONVERGENCE WILL MAY A
PROBLEM FOR STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...
MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WOULD AND DEEP WLY FLOW WOULD SUPPORT
BRIEF HAIL/WIND THREATS.
..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005
...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.