STORM2K

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 301848Z - 302045Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN TX
INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

AIR MASS ACROSS SERN TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA IS GRADUALLY
RECOVERING IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY NOW DECAYING ACROSS
THE W-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST RUC SUGGEST 100MB MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...WITH VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY IN PLACE AT
18Z.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF GALVESTON BAY SWWD INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER JUST SE OF
CLL COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 20-25KT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT APPEARS THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
/1.8-2 IN/ AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY MAY POSE
A THREAT OF BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 05/30/2005


ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1077.html

I'm not holding my breath for Lafayette parish....rain has been evading us like the plague!

Oh man, Im in it again!!! Nothing even thinking about getting started here today... Maybe later?

Outflow boundary has just pushed W across League City in N Galveston County from the storms over W Galveston Bay.

I believe this will just add fuel for the storms later this afternoon. A few storms beginning to develop in Colorado County headed SE

Jeff I am curious what think will occur with storm rotating across Central and S Central TX to the S and SE.

Also curious about last nights wind gusts across Brazoria and Galveston Counties.

CajunMama wrote:I'm not holding my breath for Lafayette parish....rain has been evading us like the plague!

Tell me about it CM. If you look at the storm total there is a big hole right over Lafayette where very little precipitation has fallen. We still need LOTS more rain. A few days ago I was thinking that by today we'd be waterlogged and that is certainly not the case. I'm hoping for some big time rains this afternoon but so far I am discouraged.

I really dont see too much of anything forming over land... Looks like a large area of distrubed weather in the center of the gulf.... The NWS still thinks we have a fairly good shot at something, it hasnt backed down on the rain chances--still at 60% this afternoon and 50% for overnight.... I guess I will believe it when I see some storms...You can never get enough storms! Its been soooo long since we have had a good few days of rain here....

I don't think it's gonna happen. Some isolated thunderstorms are popping up everywhere, but nothing that looks like it's trying to organize into anything major.

I don't think it's gonna happen either. Already almost 4:30, skies are mostly cloudy and whatever showers have developed on radar are weak. Really frustrating because if it's sunny tomorrow my grass will already need to be watered, it rained that little around here.

PTrackerLA wrote:I don't think it's gonna happen either. Already almost 4:30, skies are mostly cloudy and whatever showers have developed on radar are weak. Really frustrating because if it's sunny tomorrow my grass will already need to be watered, it rained that little around here.

Wow PT, that's some tough luck. We picked up 2.25" since 10 a.m. yesterday. I noticed Sunday afternoon that the radar indicated a dry slot of sorts to the west of us, but I thought you would've got in on the noisy action that developed overnight.

The local NWS discussion this afternoon hints at some possible precip later tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING MORE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Here's hoping it materializes as prog'd, and drops an inch or two on y'all.

This illustrates exactly what I'm talking about. Notice the light blue right over Lafayette. Tough luck is right!

KatDaddy wrote:Outflow boundary has just pushed W across League City in N Galveston County from the storms over W Galveston Bay.

I believe this will just add fuel for the storms later this afternoon. A few storms beginning to develop in Colorado County headed SE

Jeff I am curious what think will occur with storm rotating across Central and S Central TX to the S and SE.

Also curious about last nights wind gusts across Brazoria and Galveston Counties.

Sorry for the delayed response major computer (Roadrunner) issues today.

Air mass over SE TX appears only weakly unstable and weakly sheared hence storms are pulsing and not maintaining themselves. Activity over NC and C TX should rapidly decrease with the lose of solar heating. Some concern is for Fort Bend into Brazoria CO. where westward moving outflow boundary may collide with SSW moving convection creating a favorable region on surface convergence and very heavy rainfall.

Not expecting anything like yesterday and most activity should be gone by 900pm.

Most showers are now dying out for the evening as expected. Picked up a whopping .27" of rain officially today bringing our grand total for the month to .64". Guess I'll go turn the sprinklers back on for the week, life is not fair . I promise I'll stop complaining after this post because it obviously hasn't done any good .


*prays for more rain*

PTrackerLA wrote:Most showers are now dying out for the evening as expected. Picked up a whopping .27" of rain officially today bringing our grand total for the month to .64". Guess I'll go turn the sprinklers back on for the week, life is not fair . I promise I'll stop complaining after this post because it obviously hasn't done any good .


*prays for more rain*

Play the song "Pray for Rain" by PFR. It really works!! I hadn't heard it in a long time, played it and the next day, it poured, easing our drought conditions. hehe