STORM2K

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281807
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2003

CURRENTLY...DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
SERN GULF SUPPORTING A LARGE CANOPY OF CLOUDS ACROSS MY S-CENTRAL
ZONES WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS NOTED ON 88D OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA. SECOND
UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS TO THE NW WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC FRONTAL
TROUGH NOW NEAR A KDAB TO KBKV LINE CONTINUES TO SAG SEWD. DRIER AIR
BEHIND THIS SECOND TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS MY NRN ZONES WITH DEW POINTS
NOW IN THE UPPER 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...50H SHEAR AXIS AND WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL SAG SOUTH TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS IT DOES SO
CLOUDS ANY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES WILL COME
TO AN END AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. GIVEN 88D TRENDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED EVENING POPS FOR HIGHLANDS...DESOTO AND HARDEE COUNTIES...
AND KEEP LOW END SCATTERED POPS ~30% FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
GOING ALL NIGHT GIVEN TROUGH AXIS SETTLING INTO THESE AREAS. DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTH ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT
COOLER MINS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
60S FROM BROOKSVILLE NORTH. ELSEWHERE ~70 TO THE LOWER 70S CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM (THURS-FRIDAY)...50H SHEAR AXIS AND REMNANT SFC TROUGH
ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...WHERE BEST POP CHANCES ~30% WILL RESIDE.
ELSEWHERE DRIER AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH FEW 90S INTERIOR...
EXCEPT COOLER IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE FA. SEEING THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND THAT MOST
OF THE VORT ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST WILL NOT ADVERTISE ANY
POPS JUST YET...WITH MAIN INFLUENCE BEING A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS THE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS
THURSDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT. FWC/MET/MAV TEMPS SIMILAR
AND ACCEPTED.

EXTENDED(SAT-TUES)...MODELS HAVE DONE SOMEWHAT OF A FLIP FLOP.
PREVIOUS BENIGN WEEKEND WX MAY NOW BE WET ON SUN ESP OVER NORTH
AREAS. ON SAT WE WILL BE ON BACK SIDE OF TROF WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUN...SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THEN SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. SFC FRONT
ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SUN TO GENERATE SCT POPS N AND
INTERIOR. FRONT TO STALL/WASH OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON
MON WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SERIES OVER VORTS ROTATING OVERHEAD
THRU TUE FOR CHANCE OF PRECIP. DAYTIME TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
BUT MAY SEE SOME BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS OVER THE NORTH IF FRONT
MOVES THRU.

MARINE...NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ~10 KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. GFS WANT TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH WEST WINDS
INCREASING TOWARD SCEC LEVELS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. SEEING THAT THE GFS TENDS TO OVER
DO THE WINDS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE...BUT KEEP WIND/SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FIRE WEATHER...NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF KEEPING RH
LEVEL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA OVER INTERIOR LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT AREA ~3 PM.
IN ADDITION ON THURSDAY SUBTLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHT DOWN A BIT AND WILL ALSO KEEP RH LEVELS ABOVE
WATCH OR FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE FA...EVEN INTERIOR ZONES...SO WILL
DROP THE WATCH ON THURSDAY AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY #'S
TPA 071/086 071/086 0-01
SRQ 070/085 071/084 11-1
GIF 068/088 067/088 1111
FMY 072/086 070/089 2323
BKV 059/085 062/087 0001

.TBW...NONE.

JCM/RD

Seems this to be verifying!!!


861
fxus62 ktbw 291755 cca
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
215 PM EDT Thursday may 29 2003


Currently...short wave trough moving through the base of the long
wave trough over the eastern U.S. Has helped to push the deeper
moisture axis and shower/thunderstorm activity south of the forecast area early this
afternoon...with WV loop now showing pronounced middle/upper level
drying throughout...with partly to mostly sunny skies being observed.
Onshore wind flow is keeping temperatures in the lower 80s along coastal
locations early this afternoon...with middle 80 degree readings over
the interior.


Short term(tonight-sat)...models similar this afternoon and will use
a blend. Long wave trough will persist over the eastern U.S. Through
the period with series of vorticity maximums forecasted to move southeastward over the forecast area
in northwest flow aloft over the next few days. Despite these
features...dry air aloft and onshore westerly flow should preclude
pop chances on Friday...with only isolated chances on Saturday mainly
over interior locations late in the day. Mainly clear skies tonight
along with the dry air mass will again support slightly cooler min
temperatures...with readings in the 60s from kbkv north...and ~70 central
and south. Maximum temperatures the next few days will remain near seasonal
levels with readings in the upper 80s to ~90 interior...and middle 80s
coastal zones due to the onshore flow. Model temperatures are again
similar and a blend should suffice in most locations.


Extended(sun-thurs)...latest ext models indicating wet period coming
up. Upper trough remains over the eastern U.S. As a series of embedded
shortwaves rotate around the base off the Gulf over the area. On
sun surface front still prognosticated to move into the area then
stall/dissipate as SW flow keeps abundant moisture in place.
Diurnal heating to combine with vorticity overhead and surface convergence to
generate at least scattered probability of precipitation north and int and isolated to scattered elsewhere.
Features to continue to keep unsettled weather in place through middle week to
combine each afternoon into the evening for scattered convection.


Marine...surface high pressure to the south and series of deepening
surface low moving east northeast up along the middle Atlantic will maintain
a SW-westerly flow across the coastal waters into the upcoming weekend.
Tightening gradient will result in winds approaching 15 knots with
seas building to 3 to 4 feet on Saturday and Sunday as trailing cold
front moves into the coastal waters. Similar to yesterday the GFS
is depicting winds increasing toward small craft over the ahead of
the approaching frontal boundary...but again feel this may be a bit
over done...so will undercut keeping values just below scec criteria.
On Monday surface high pressure build south over the southeastern states...
moving quickly into the Atlantic on Tuesday with lighter east-southeasterly wind
flow with onshore sea breezes expected.


Fire weather...the dry air mass along with sunshine supporting maximum
temperatures in the upper 80s should allow for rh's to drop into the 35-40%
range for a few hours on Saturday afternoon mainly over interior
locations from Polk County north. Given this will issue a Fire Weather
Watch for these locations ~3 PM this afternoon. On Saturday
increasing westerly flow should keep relative humidity level above critical levels
with no watches or flags expected.


Preliminary #'s
bkv 062/088 065/089 000-
tpa 071/087 074/088 000-
srq 070/086 072/086 000-
gif 067/090 070/090 0001
bkv 062/088 065/088 000-


Tbw...none.


Jcm/rd