STORM2K

It's been VERY COOL for this time of year, I cannot BELIEVE how unsual this weather is and from the sounds of it, it's NOT going to warm up/change ANY time soon!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 061617 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 915 AM MST MON JUN 06 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY...WINDY WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A BIT OF A WARMUP ON THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PORTLAND OREGON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO IDAHO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ASH FORK TO PAGE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. A CORRESPONDING WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 700 PM MST. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DRY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SO EXPECT FEW CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

Reminds me of 1995-we had a cool June that year followed by a July that was more June like than June with very hot weather and a late dry start to the monsoon. However, the monsoon itself turned out to be a bit above normal rainwise and extremely violent. Two Tropical remnants, Gabrielle from the GOM in August and Ismael from the EPAC in September aided in the rainfall. The severe weather event of the evening of 27-28 September was one of the most violent in southern AZ with baseball hail and tornado reports.

Steve

Steve, I remember 1995 (not too bad for someone with CRS!).....and your right, it WAS very cool, just like this year and according to this AFD, it's going to continue for awhile

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 071058 AAA AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 325 AM MST TUE JUN 07 2005 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY WEATHER TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND A SECOND NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THERE IS A STRONG WESTERLY JET RUNNING AT 50 DEG N THROUGH THE GULF OF AK WITH EMBEDDED WAVES AND THESES FEATURES WILL IMPACT US LATER THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC CURRENTLY THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM CENTRAL UTAH TO LAS VEGAS NV THENCE SOUTHWESTWARD. H7 WINDS ALOFT OVER NRN ARE RUNNING THE TO 40 KNOT RANGE...AND WINDS IN THE DONEY PARK AREA ARE BEING CHANNELED BY TERRAIN CAUSING GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM ISSUE AGAIN IS THE SFC WINDS. THE WIND SPEEDS PEAK OVER OVER NRN AZ THIS MORNING IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE AND THEN DIMINISH BY 18Z TO 25 KNOTS. THIS IN PART DUE TO THE VORT MAX NOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THAT MOVES INTO SW WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS HERE THIS MORNING ARE TIED TO THE TERRAIN AND HELPED BY BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY...AND WITH WARMING THIS MORNING AND PASSAGE OF THE VORT MAX BELIEVE GUSTS WILL DECREASE BY MID MORNING. WEDNESDAY...GFS FOLLOWS PREVIOUS TRENDS SHOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE AND THE VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER V. ISLE. MOVING THROUGH FAR NRN NEVADA. H7 WINDS OVER NRN AZ ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS LESS THAN THIS MORNING AND THINK WE SHOULD DECOUPLE WITH SOME COOL MORNING MINS FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NOW LOOKING UNSETTLED AND BREEZY AS THE STRONG JET CURRENTLY THROUGH THE GULF OF AK IS SHOWN TO REFRESH THE TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. AND SEND MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER ARIZONA. HAVE INCREASED AREAL PARTLY CLOUDY FURTHER SOUTH FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THERE IS GOOD LIFT EACH OF THE AFTERNOONS...BUT PROGGED DEPTH OF MOISTURE THE WILD CARD.

Yes indeed. The models have certainly settled on a trough in the west ridge in the east configuration. Up here in WA state we are finally seeing some really cool weather too. We may not even hit 60 today!