STORM2K

Looks like according to the NHC forecast that by Tues. through Fri. slow moving remnants of Dennis will pose a tremendous threat for flooding in parts of the Ohio Valley!!

Eric

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 4_5day.gif

I'm watching that closely, for sure. If the circulation center comes through Cincinnati or passes within maybe 50 miles, we may deal with a tornadic threat too. But it's certain we will see heavy rains. We need rain...but not a lot all at once.

Jeremy,

What are the factors/variables that would cause the depression remnants to start putting on the brake(s) so to say during the Tues. through Fri. time frame in it's 'movement'?

Eric

At this point, I can't really tell. If anything, it is just going to be running out of forward momentum as it weakens. I will say there is a cold front to the NW and that will be slowed by Dennis. IF it stalls anywhere nearby, it's just a matter of how much moisture will be available to keep rain going into Friday or the weekend.

Should Eastern Kentucky be concerned about flooding at this point?

I'd be worried anywhere in the Ohio Valley. That includes Eastern Kentucky. It's worse there due to the mountains.

Just a little update...

At this point, it looks as if Dennis (or what's left of it) will move into Missouri tomorrow, and then slowly into IL Wednesday. After that, it looks like Dennis will just meander VERY slowly into Southwestern Indiana. That's because there's just nothing to push Dennis any faster. So, what does this mean for the Ohio Valley?

At this point, my call is as follows:

There will be a 15+" bullseye in SW IN/S IL/W KY.
Around that, from about Evansville east to Cincinnati, and to the west closer to STL, there will be amounts of 5-10".
And east of Cincinnati, headed on over to Portsmouth, OH, into Charleston, WV, there will be amounts between 2-5".

EVERYONE (and I stress that) in the Ohio Valley should be prepared for some river flooding. I think the worst of the OH River flooding will be from Louisville, KY downstream.

I have some relatives in SW IN...my prayers and thoughts are with them.

Thank you very much Jeremy for your information, Wxbuddy.

Also, isobar (Donna) lives in Newburgh, IN (near Evansville). Prayers and thoughts with her and her family as well as others who are in the affected areas.

Eric

First band of clouds from Dennis reached northern Ohio by 9:45 this morning. Hard to believe it got here that fast.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a ... 11003/1006

Dennis Ready to Drench Much of State (Indiana)

Local mets here in Eastern Ohio arent saying much about this system yet. They think we wont get much from it. If the rain field stays wide and it stalls in Indiana then we will get rain from it. The NWS is saying 2" or less. Much different story for people in the lower Ohio Valley.

Yeah, only about half an inch being forecasted for Eastern KY.

Quite frankly, I was not surprised at the call for E OH. I am a little surprised about eastern KY though. I think it could be closer to 1" there.

The latest models are showing Dennis' remnant low actually moving BACK to the west on Friday. That may keep amounts down to the east. HOWEVER...I would not be one bit surprised if the amounts I called for in Indiana/W KY/IL verify. It does look like rain will continue to be possible through Sunday or even Monday with plenty of moist air still around the Cincinnati area. While beneficial...we don't need 5" or more in a week here.

What needs to be understood is that this area is in a moderate to severe drought right now, a few areas are "just" abnormally dry, butthe rain will be light enough as not to cause flash flooding. This is EXACTLY the kind of rain this area needs - it'll get the crops back into full gear and will soak the ground only slowly. That's not to say that there won't be some isolated flooding, but there's nothing to worry about here. Now, if there were a front in the vicinity acting to focus some heavier thunderstorm activity, it would be a different story (such as 2 septembers ago when the Indy area got 6-8" of rain in one day), but there's no such thing here - just light to moderate rain, with embedded heavier pockets. This is a good thing!

But if the system hangs around through Friday or so out that way...and thunderstorms are in the forecast, too, at least for SW IN.

Granted they've been in a drought but over several days t-storms (some heavy) could dump rain that after a while won't be able to soak in if the remnants hang around going into next weekend for ie.

Eric

The tornado threat diminished with this system in a hurry, even as he made landfall. Those wind profiles COLLASPED badly