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Fire Weather Discussions
Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:35 pm
by TexasStooge
This is a thread of Fire Weather Discussions and products.
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DESPITE MODERATE NLY/OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN CA...RECENT LIGHT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA...BUT HERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY/S BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WEAK COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO THE PRESENCE OF MUCH LOWER
DEWPTS WILL AID IN VERY LOW RH READINGS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENTLY MODERATE NLY WINDS /10-15 MPH/ A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES WHERE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS EXIST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN AL...CENTRAL/SRN
MS...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL LITTLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRY AIR /WITH DEWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S/ WILL
MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA. DEWPTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 50 F ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE MILD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEWPTS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AL/MS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN FAR SRN MS/AL...SERN LA AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. EARLY MORNING RADAR DERIVED WINDS /VWP/
SUGGEST THAT WINDS ONLY A THOUSAND FEET AGL WERE AROUND 30 MPH. THIS
WAS AROUND 10 MPH STRONGER THAN RECENT MODEL FCSTS FOR THE SAME
LEVEL ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OF THESE WINDS FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW RH READINGS AND HIGH FIRE
DANGERS/SHORT TERM DROUGHT...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RH RECOVERY
IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
...NRN CA...
EARLIER INDICATIONS OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT HAVE BEEN
MITIGATED BY WETTING RAINS THAT OCCURRED OVER MOST OF NRN CA
YESTERDAY. MODERATE /15-25 MPH/ NNELY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR THROUGH TODAY IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE
HILLS...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST BETWEEN THE
NRN GREAT BASIN AND COASTAL CENTRAL CA. MIN RH READINGS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT TODAY...AND AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OVERNIGHT IN THE
HILLS ABOVE 15OO FT.
..CROSBIE.. 10/16/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST ON DAY ONE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
DAY TWO...WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER SRN
CA. OTHERWISE...BROAD WNWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES SEWD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. AN ENERGETIC LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO MT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. INCREASING SURFACE SWLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
FIRE DANGER OVER MT. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SERN STATES. ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH READINGS /25-35 PERCENT/
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS HIGH.
HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON DAY ONE...AND THUS A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR.
...MT...
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN CANADA. THE AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT THIS COULD HAVE A
PRONOUNCED AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MIN RH READINGS. SINCE
ENOUGH CERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW LOW MIN RH READINGS WILL BE...A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM.
...SERN STATES...
MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH THAN ON DAY ONE ALONG WITH DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
..CROSBIE.. 10/16/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:50 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2005
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FARTHER NORTH...A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS SWRN CANADA AND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE STRONG SFC WINDS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...MIN RH READINGS WILL NOT FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NATION THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF FIRE WEATHER RELATED
CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE SERN STATES WHERE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH
READINGS WILL OCCUR. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SERN STATES...
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH READINGS WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES INTO THE REGION. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 75-85 DEGREE
RANGE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40-50 DEGREE RANGE WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
READINGS AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
GENERALLY WEAK SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH...A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
...MT...
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN MT...CLOSEST TO A STRONG MID LEVEL
WIND MAX THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD OUT OF CANADA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
WITH DEWPTS NOT APPRECIABLY LOW /35-40 DEG F/...MIN RH READINGS ARE
FCST TO BE IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 10/17/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2005
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST SHOULD OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE
EWD INTO THE SWRN STATES ON DAY TWO. AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM SRN CA INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL AID
IN INTENSIFYING THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND AN INCREASE IN SSWLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ATTM...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE APPARENT IN THIS AREA AS MIN RH READINGS SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH /ABOVE 20 PERCENT/. FURTHER EAST...THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION. DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MIN RH READINGS AROUND 30 PERCENT.
...SERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH DEWPTS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON DAY ONE...
GENERALLY IN THE 45-55 DEG F RANGE...WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM
30-35 PERCENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT WEAK SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
..CROSBIE.. 10/17/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:45 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY...REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY EARLY WED MORNING. WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE NRN STREAM...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS BC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY THIS AFTN. SFC LOW NOW OVER
WRN ND WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS IT MOVES INTO WCNTRL WI
BY EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NE WY AND WRN NEB WITH STRONG WIND SHIFT INVOF FRONT.
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ALTHOUGH
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH OR LESS.
...SCNTRL ND/SD...
BREEZY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FACILITATE DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING FROPA AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY DIP AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT AS SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RECENT NFDRS FIRE DANGER CLASS VALUES HAVE ALSO
BEEN IN THE HIGH RANGE...SO SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES
EXISTS.
..TAYLOR.. 10/18/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW OFF BAJA COAST WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
WRN CANADA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MI/CNTRL IL EARLY IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY...BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND CO FRONT RANGE. MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO SRN PLAINS WHERE STRONGER SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP INVOF
LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TOO HIGH /ABOVE 20-25 PERCENT/ TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AREA.
..TAYLOR.. 10/18/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2005 6:48 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 280853
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
STATES...PROVIDING FOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE WSWLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUSTAIN THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...REINFORCED BY A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN
SEABOARD...WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE
PLAINS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE LEE
TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE...AIDING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS STATES. LOW RH READINGS WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM TX ENEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY/SERN STATES. PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN
THIS REGION WILL OFFSET THE LOW RH READINGS TO LIMIT ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
...PLAINS STATES...
MODERATE /20-25 MPH/ SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS FROM NWRN OK INTO ERN SD/WRN MN.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEASONABLY LOW /30S TO 40S/ TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MIN RH
READINGS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT.
...TX EWD INTO THE SERN STATES...
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE /70S/ AND COMBINED WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 30S TO 40S WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS /AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH/ DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY REACH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND CONDITIONS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 10/28/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2005
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS WILL AID IN SHIFTING THE LEE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THUS BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE OH VALLEY/SERN STATES. LOW RH READINGS WILL AGAIN BE
PRESENT OVER THE SERN STATES. BUT AS ON DAY ONE...SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10 MPH OR LESS PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS...WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH...WILL OCCUR
OVER MUCH OF OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO KS/WRN MO.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM...WITH READINGS INTO THE
LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH LITTLE TO NO INCREASE
IN DEWPTS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN...MIN
RH READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DAY ONE /30-35 PERCENT/. A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MARGINAL
RH READINGS.
..CROSBIE.. 10/28/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2005 10:47 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE NATION WILL BEGIN A PATTERN CHANGE DURING
DAY ONE...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER
TROUGHING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER THE
PLAINS...UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE SENSIBLE RESULT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE AN
EWD SHIFT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ERN
STATES...AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
AID IN A WARM-UP COMMENCING OVER THE PLAINS REGION TODAY. NO AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NATION TODAY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY WEAK WHERE LOW RH
READINGS WILL BE PRESENT /FROM CA EWD INTO THE PLAINS/.
...SOUTHERN CA...
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WEST...OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MIN RH READINGS WILL REMAIN LOW /10-20 PERCENT/
IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND MTNS. GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
EXPECTED EVEN AT 12Z /GENERALLY 15-20 MPH/...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.
...SOUTHERN TX...
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. DEWPTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
30S/40S...WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT. SUSTAINED NLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS AT TIMES AROUND 20
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RH READINGS FALL BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE
LACK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MARGINAL WINDS
SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SOAKING RAINS THAT COVERED
THE WHOLE AREA YESTERDAY.
..CROSBIE.. 11/01/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CST TUE NOV 01 2005
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS
THROUGH DAY 2. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGHING...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN WHILE SLIDING EWD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES/GULF COAST
REGION...AN INCREASE IN SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SURFACE SWLY WINDS OVER
THE SRN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ATTM...MIN RH
READINGS IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH THAT
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT APPARENT.
...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW...
SWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE SRN
GREAT BASIN...WHERE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN/CENTRAL
NV WILL AID IN AN ADDITIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE TO THE SURFACE
WIND FIELDS. MIN RH READINGS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL /15-20 PERCENT/ AS WARM AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SWLY WIND TRAJECTORIES. THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LATER UPGRADE IF TRENDS INDICATE LOWER RH
READINGS.
...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH /STRONGEST FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS/ AS THE
LEE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DURING THE PERIOD. MIN RH
READINGS FROM 30-35 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER PLAINS OF OK AND KS...TO
20-25 PERCENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR TREND IN
POSSIBLE LOWER RH/CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
..CROSBIE.. 11/01/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:42 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
WEATHER TODAY. ONLY CHANGES COMING UP WILL BE THE INCREASING CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES
ENHANCES PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THUS INCREASING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. MINIMUM DAYTIME HUMIDITIES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
BE A CRITICAL LEVELS AS OVERALL FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN LOW. THE ONLY
SAVING GRACE TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE
LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT AND STALLING IT OVER OKLAHOMA...WHICH
SHOULD HELP DIMINISH THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN...BUT KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMDITIES CRITICAL ACROSS SOME AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS.
TXZ091-100>102-115>117-030015-
MONTAGUE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GRAHAM...OLNEY...
JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...
WEATHERFORD...BRIAR
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 81 (+6) 53 (+6) 84
RH % (24H TREND) 18 (-3) 66 (-23) 21
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) S 7 S 12
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 10 S 10 S 17
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1471 915
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)4827 3002
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 8 SW 11
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS WARM. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ092-093-103-104-118-119-030015-
COOKE-GRAYSON-DENTON-COLLIN-TARRANT-DALLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...SHERMAN...DENISON...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 79 (+7) 52 (+7) 82
RH % (24H TREND) 20 (-2) 71 (-18) 24
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) S 6 S 11
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 9 S 9 S 17
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1467 935
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)4813 3069
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 6 S 11
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ095-106-107-122-123-030015-
LAMAR-DELTA-HOPKINS-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARIS...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...
POINT...EAST TAWAKONI
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 76 (+6) 51 (+8) 81
RH % (24H TREND) 25 (-1) 74 (-22) 27
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) LGT/VAR S 9
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 8 S 8 S 14
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1152 947
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)3779 3107
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 4 S 10
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ129-130-141>143-156-030015-
EASTLAND-ERATH-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...
HAMILTON...HICO...LAMPASAS
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 81 (+5) 52 (+7) 84
RH % (24H TREND) 18 (0) 66 (-23) 24
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) S 7 S 10
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 9 S 9 S 16
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1480 944
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)4856 3097
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 7 SW 10
SUNSHINE HOURS 9 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS WARM. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ131>134-144-145-157>159-030015-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-BOSQUE-HILL-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...
MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...
HILLSBORO...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...
FORT HOOD...WACO
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 79 (+6) 51 (+8) 82
RH % (24H TREND) 18 (0) 71 (-22) 25
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) S 5 S 9
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 9 S 8 S 16
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1519 987
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)4982 3237
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 6 S 9
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ135-147-148-162-175-030015-
HENDERSON-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LEON-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...
OAKWOOD...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 76 (+5) 51 (+10) 81
RH % (24H TREND) 24 (+1) 74 (-26) 29
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) LGT/VAR S 7
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 6 S 6 S 12
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1186 1080
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)3890 3544
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 3 S 8
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ094-105-120-121-030015-
FANNIN-HUNT-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...
ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 77 (+6) 52 (+8) 81
RH % (24H TREND) 25 (0) 71 (-22) 27
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) S 5 S 10
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 9 S 9 S 16
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1412 935
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)4631 3069
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 5 S 11
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
TXZ146-160-161-174-030015-
NAVARRO-FALLS-LIMESTONE-MILAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORSICANA...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...CAMERON...ROCKDALE
606 AM CST WED NOV 2 2005
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
TODAY TONIGHT THU
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 77 (+5) 51 (+9) 81
RH % (24H TREND) 19 (0) 74 (-22) 30
20FTWND-VAL/AM(MPH) LGT/VAR S 8
20FTWND-RDG/PM(MPH) S 8 S 8 S 14
MIXING HGT(M-AGL/MSL) 1185 1027
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL)3889 3368
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) S 4 S 8
SUNSHINE HOURS 10 9
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:44 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE PLAINS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS COMBINED
WITH THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT RH READINGS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. FURTHER EAST...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
SERN STATES...PROVIDING FOR LOW RH READINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MOST OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN
OK AND SWRN KS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
LEE TROUGH. THE SENSIBLE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVERLAYS THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO
SWRN/SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING ANTICIPATED OVER THIS
REGION...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...WARMING LOW LEVELS WITH READINGS REACHING
THE LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/30S WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS WRN OK
INTO SWRN KS.
...WRN...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...
MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AS WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S.
AREA WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES OVER 20 MPH.
...SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE/DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AND FULL MIXING POTENTIAL. THUS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MIN RH READINGS ABOVE
15 PERCENT.
...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
MIN RH READINGS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT UNDER INFLUENCE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE NEB/SD AND IA/SRN MN TODAY
UNDER UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15-20
MPH OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS TO BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OVER ERN NEB/IA AND
SRN MN. MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS AND BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT OVER THE REMAINDER THE
AREA. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH READINGS IN THE EAST AND WINDS IN
THE WEST WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2005 7:44 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES DURING DAY TWO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE CA/ORE
COAST. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE
WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING OF
THE LEE CYCLONE IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG SSWLY WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS AND
RECENT-LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT/DORMANT VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SRN PLAINS
REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM...NRN/WRN
TX...MOST OF OK/NWRN AR...SRN/ERN KS AND WRN MO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...DROUGHT
CONDITIONS
LITTLE DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FCST MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES ON DAY TWO. AS A RESULT OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE...A
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER ERN
CO/NWRN KS/SWRN NEB REGION. AS THE LEE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES...SO WILL
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER SRN PLAINS AND OZARK MTNS
REGION. A COMPARISON BETWEEN DAY ONE AND DAY TWO SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 MB OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ON DAY TWO OVER MOST OF NRN
TX...OK/MO AND WRN AR. IN MOST OF THIS REGION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO EXIST. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING OF THE ASSOCIATED
40-50 KT WIND MAX IN THE 1 KM LAYER...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM
20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VERY WARM AIR IN THE 1 KM LAYER /+20-22 C AT 850 MB/ WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL /IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S/ OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS OVER FORECASTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF OK/KS...AND
EXPECT SURFACE DEWPTS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST OVER
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN TX AND ERN NM...DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN RH
READINGS WILL BE MARGINALLY CRITICAL /15-20 PERCENT/ DUE TO
TEMPERATURES NOT REALIZING THE FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. BUT THE DEGREE OF STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH DORMANT VEGETATION DUE TO RECENT FALL FREEZES WILL SUPPORT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
....SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE...
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR AS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BENEATH STRONG MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONSEQUENTLY MIN RH
READINGS APPEAR TO REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT PRECLUDING A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...MID MS VALLEY...
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE
MID MS VALLEY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS
OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN READINGS FURTHER
SW /HIGHS IN THE 70S/ WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35
PERCENT. THUS THIS AREA WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
UNDER PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH READINGS
FROM 25-35 PERCENT WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE REGION.
..CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2005 7:00 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO
THE OZARK REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES DURING DAY ONE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE CA/ORE
COAST. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE
WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING OF
THE LEE CYCLONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS CYCLONE/LEE TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG SSWLY
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
READINGS AND RECENT-LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT/DORMANT VEGETATION
WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA OF
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM...MUCH OF
NRN/WRN TX...MOST OF OK/WRN AR...SRN/ERN KS AND WRN MO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...SUSTAINED
SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH...SHORT-LONG TERM
DROUGHT
AS A RESULT OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE...A STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC
LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LEE
CYCLONE INTENSIFIES...SO WILL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER
SRN PLAINS AND OZARK MTNS REGION. IN MOST OF THIS REGION...A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO EXIST. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT. VERY WARM AIR IN THE 1
KM LAYER /+20-22 C AT 850 MB/ WILL SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL /IN THE 80S/ OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM
IS OVER FORECASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH
OF WRN OK/KS...AND EXPECT SURFACE DEWPTS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S
...WITH CONSEQUENT MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER
PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CUT-OFF TO EXTENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
READINGS WINDS FROM CENTRAL INTO NERN TX AND CENTRAL AR WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR.
FURTHER WEST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN TX AND PORTIONS OF ERN
NM...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG
MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN RH READINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT EVEN
WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THE DEGREE OF STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
DORMANT VEGETATION DUE TO RECENT FALL FREEZES SHOULD SUPPORT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
....SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE...
SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR AS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BENEATH STRONG MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY LOW /60S-LOWER 70S/ THAT
CONSEQUENT MIN RH READINGS WILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT PRECLUDING A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE
MID MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN READINGS FURTHER SW /HIGHS IN THE 70S/
COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN THE 35-45 F RANGE WILL LEAD TO MIN RH
READINGS FROM 30-35 PERCENT.
...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
UNDER PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH READINGS
FROM 25-35 PERCENT WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE REGION.
..CROSBIE.. 11/03/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST THU NOV 03 2005
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE NATION ON DAY TWO.
THE LACK OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS
AS WILL BE THE CASE ON DAY ONE. IN ADDITION A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SWD AND EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER OK NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LIKELY. THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FCST TO BE LESS ON DAY
TWO OVER THE SRN PLAIN/MS VALLEY REGION. WHERE WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
MARGINALLY CRITICAL WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH /FROM NORTH TX NEWD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 45-55 F RANGE SHOULD PRECLUDE RH READINGS FROM FALLING
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL ALSO BE WEAKER THAN ON DAY ONE AS MID LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES. THUS ATTM...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CONUS.
...SRN PLAINS...
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE FRONT...WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET/PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. IN ADDITION...OVER THE LOWER PLAINS /GENERALLY
EAST OF I-35/ THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN AS
SURFACE RIDGING DIMINISHES OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SLY FLOW
TAPS THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE 45-55 F RANGE...MIN RH READINGS WILL BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
...SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...WITH SSELY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH. LACK OF MIN RH
READINGS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT GIVEN ANTICIPATED SLOW MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..CROSBIE.. 11/03/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 7:44 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE NM/SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE AND
NCNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY BY EARLY TUE. ALSO APPARENT IN SATELLITE LOOPS IS A JET MAX
NOW ACROSS SRN CA WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATER
TODAY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN WY INTO SE CO WILL
STRENGTHEN AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY AFTN. SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EVEN THOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE RATHER
HIGH...COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NE NM/SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE AND
NCNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/DRY FUELS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY
BY 15-20 DEGREES. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLE. ALSO...40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK/SE KS THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION WILL BREAK BY MID-LATE MORNING ALLOWING
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO MIX TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH SEEM LIKELY. RECENT 10 HR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES BETWEEN 5-6 PERCENT AND HIGH KBDI VALUES IN THE
500-700 RANGE ARE INDICATIVE OF THE DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES. SFC DEWPOINTS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS/TX PANHANDLE ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. BUT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S/50S INVOF OF THE
RED RIVER AND IN THE 60S ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WITH STRONG SLY WINDS
TODAY...RAPID MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS KS/OK. EVEN WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...INCREASING TO AROUND 40-50 PERCENT. ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NE NM...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE THE HIGH RH VALUES.
..TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST MON NOV 07 2005
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE NM/TX PANHANDLE/SRN
KS/OK/NCNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW BY EARLY WED MORNING. SRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN STRONG...WHILE IN THE NRN STREAM...IMPULSE NOW
OFF THE BC COAST WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. SFC LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NE NM/TX PANHANDLE/SRN
KS/OK/NCNTRL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SLY WINDS 15-25 MPH/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS/DRY FUELS
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES IN OK/NCNTRL
TX AND KS...THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD
COMPENSATE. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY LATE MORNING/AFTN. MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM WILL RANGE FROM 20-25 PERCENT WITH STRONGER
WINDS THAN MONDAY. FUELS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
..TAYLOR.. 11/07/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 9:49 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE NM/TX PANHANDLE/OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL/RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD FROM ALBERTA
TODAY...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW BY EARLY WED MORNING. AS
THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT EJECTS EWD FROM THE LEE
OF THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WED. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD INTO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND WILL
EXTEND FROM THE TX S PLAINS/CNTRL OK/MO OZARKS BY WED MORNING. GUSTY
SLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE NM/TX PANHANDLE AND OK.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NE NM/TX PANHANDLE/OK...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-30 MPH/ABOVE NORMAL/RECORD
HIGH TEMPS/DRY FUELS
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A
FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 15-30 MPH RANGE...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN
FIRES. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOST CRITICAL /15-20 PERCENT/
ACROSS NE NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT FARTHER EAST RH VALUES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE 30-40 PERCENT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE VERY HIGH KBDI
VALUES/LOW 10 HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AND WINDY AND UNUSUALLY WARM
CONDITIONS...PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA REMAIN AT RISK FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
..TAYLOR.. 11/08/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION ON WED TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WITH NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING INTO A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST
S OF HUDSON BAY BY WED EVE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW NOW
DEVELOPING OFF CA COAST WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY THU. ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
GULF OF AK AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO QUEBEC WILL
HELP AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
...SRN PLAINS...
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS OK AND NCNTRL TX BY
EARLY AFTN...WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MON/TUE ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLE.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
..TAYLOR.. 11/08/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:19 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST WED NOV 09 2005
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MEANDERS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND STRONG TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO NORTHEAST TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES COAST.
...SRN PLAINS...
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH BRING MUCH DRIER
POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS TO THE AREA...WITH SURFACE RH FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT. STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF RH AND WIND DO NOT QUITE
MEET CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...SHIFTING WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS /KBDI 400 IN THE PANHANDLE
REGION TO 700 IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/ PRODUCE AN ABOVE NORMAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
..BRIGHT.. 11/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CST WED NOV 09 2005
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE NATION AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL STATES.
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH HELPS EASTERN
PACIFIC CUTOFF SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INLAND.
...GULF COAST...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. RH COULD FALL TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. RH AND WIND BOTH
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
....SRN PLAINS...
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION RETURN TO WEST TEXAS AND THE
PANHANDLES. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND RH AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.
..BRIGHT.. 11/09/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 12:57 pm
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S....
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES REACHING
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. OUT
WEST...ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST WHICH HELPS EASTERN PACIFIC CUTOFF ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA... ARIZONA...AND THE GREAT BASIN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING ADVANCES SOUTHWARD REACHING THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEGIN
TO FALL THEREAFTER. THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING DRY AIRMASS MEANS RH WILL
FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUNSET APPROACHES
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WIND BRING A QUICK
RECOVERY FROM THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
...SRN PLAINS...
EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TURNS WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20
MPH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TODAY FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COOL DOWN...AND REACH THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 20 PERCENT.
..BRIGHT.. 11/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CST THU NOV 10 2005
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE FRIDAY AS CUTOFF LOW FORMERLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BECOMES ENTRAINED IN WESTERLY FLOW AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES
TO THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COOL WESTERLY
FLOW IMPINGE UPON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS MILD PREFRONTAL AIRMASS OVERSPEADS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO TO KANSAS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS MAINTAINS DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
MISSISSIPPI WHERE MINIMUM RH FALLS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT...AND AROUND
25 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS ALOFT KEEP SURFACE WINDS WELL BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
...NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MINIMUM RH /GENERALLY 25 TO 35
PERCENT/ WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
..BRIGHT.. 11/10/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:50 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ADVANCES EASTWARD TODAY...
REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE IS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE IN
THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED AROUND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
MAINTAINS THE DRY AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR ANOTHER DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN STATES...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...MS/AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE...
RH FALLS TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S...BUT DUE TO THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS A LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL
AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AFTERNOON RH BEGINS TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE.
...SRN PLAINS...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH FROM WEST TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN KANSAS AS LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MINIMUM RH STILL
FALLS TO ABOUT 20 OR 25 PERCENT FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
..BRIGHT.. 11/11/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE MIDWEST PLACING MOST OF THE NATION UNDER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE
PERIOD IN MILD PREFRONTAL AIRMASS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DRY AIR LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REPOSITIONS ITSELF OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
GRADUALLY MOISTEN. AFTERNOON RH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT OVER SUBSTANTIAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY.
A WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR WITH SURFACE RH AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT COULD REMAIN FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS TO EASTERN INDIANA. BUT
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 20 TO 30 MPH ANY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE AGAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXPECTED
TO REACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PANHANDLE
REGION OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND RH AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
..BRIGHT.. 11/11/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 8:17 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN OK/NORTH TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS...WITH
STRONG/BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES...WITH UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSING INTO THE WEST. STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RACE E/SE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW RH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WILL REINFORCE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA...WITH SANTA
ANA SCENARIO/GUSTY WINDS INDUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS SRN CA. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 10-11 MBS LAX-TPH. NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW PASSES
AND CANYONS. STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE 80S AND LOWERING RH VALUES. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST...WITH
VERY POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG N/NE WINDS AND LOW RH
MODERATE OFFSHORE/DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN CA OWING
TO 1040+ MB INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTY N/NE WINDS OF 15-30
MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES AND
CONTINUAL DRYING SHOULD CAUSE RH VALUES TO APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POOR RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. NEAR-RECORD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE 70S AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
INTERIOR NRN CA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG NLY WINDS AND LOWERING RH
OWING TO INTERMOUNTAIN HIGH PRESSURE/STRONG GRADIENT...GUSTY NLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY OF
FAR SRN NV/SRN CA/WRN AZ. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY INITIALLY BE MARGINAL...BUT WILL A DOWNWARD
TREND WILL OCCUR ATTRIBUTABLE TO STRONG MIXING/SUBSIDENCE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 4 - SRN OK/NORTH TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS SRN OK/NORTH TX THIS MORNING. WINDS OF
25-35 MPH WILL DEVELOP EARLY TODAY...WITH HIGHER GUSTS /40-50 MPH/
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ATTRIBUTABLE TO DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER. IN SPITE OF COOLING POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND SPEEDS COUPLED WITH DRY VEGETATION AND
SUFFICIENTLY LOW RH VALUES WILL CAUSE A CRITICAL FIRE THREAT.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCNTRL/SE TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST AS EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH
TRANSITIONS EWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY. UPPER RIDGING
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN STATES...WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CNTRL STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW RH
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/SANTA ANA SCENARIO WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SRN CA ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL BE COMMON BELOW
CANYONS/PASSES...ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE GRADIENT MAY WEAKEN /7-9 MBS
LAX-TPH/ SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY. PERSISTENCE OF OFFSHORE GRADIENT
WILL AGAIN YIELD WARM 80S TEMPERATURES...WITH RH VALUES LOWERING TO
AROUND 8-12 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE COAST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN
POOR INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SCNTRL/SE TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH AND GUSTY NLY WINDS
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES /UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S/ WILL BE COOL IN WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES OF
15-25 PERCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL/SE TX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE RATHER LOW RH VALUES...GUSTY NLY WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE OUTLOOK.
...NRN CA...
OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS NRN CA
OWING TO A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND OF NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH
PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD /70S/ AND RH VALUES
RELATIVELY LOW...DIMINISHED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..GUYER.. 11/15/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:55 pm
by TexasStooge
High winds fan flames in North Texas
DALLAS, Texas (WFAA ABC 8) - High winds played havoc with efforts to fight two fires in the Dallas area Tuesday morning.
Dallas Fire-Rescue called three alarms at the Condominiums of Bent Trail complex in the 6200 block of Bentwood Trail, near Preston Road and the President George Bush Turnpike in far North Dallas.
Six units in one building were heavily damaged as firefighters used water and foam to put down the flames in the two-story structure.
Extra manpower was called in due to concern that sparks from the fire could spread to adjacent buildings in the complex.
No residents or firefighters were hurt.
At the same time, in Flower Mound, firefighters from three neighboring cities pitched in to help fight a brush fire in the 2800 block of Scenic Drive.
High winds, gusting to 38 mph, also stymied fire crews at this location, on the north side of Lake Grapevine. As of 11:50 a.m., the fire had consumed about 25 acres.
The National Weather Service issued a Red Flag Warning for the northwest sector of North Texas because the windy conditions coupled with dry weather and low humidity increase fire danger.
The weather service said the Red Flag alert should end by sunset Tuesday.
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2005 7:48 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
TODAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ERN 1/3RD OF THE
NATION...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. LOW RH
READINGS WILL AGAIN BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AS A RESULT OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE...DRY MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS STATES. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN WARM TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS...LACK OF MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER
THIS REGION.
...SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
AFTERNOON WNWLY WINDS FROM 5-15 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL
AID IN GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVELS WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOW DEWPTS...CONSEQUENT RH
READINGS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW...OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.
...CA...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIMITED TODAY DUE TO PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE. DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST...THE MARINE LAYER IS FCST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW THAT
MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL STILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH
READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. LACK OF SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH
WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST DURING DAY ONE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS
NWRN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEST...AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW
COUPLED WITH MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING FIRE DANGERS AND AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE APPARENT.
...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WSWLY SFC
WINDS OVER THE AREA. FCST WIND SPEEDS ARE FROM 10-20 MPH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN KS/SRN NEB...CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE AREA. WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE FROM 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN NRN NEB TO THE LOWER 80S IN
CENTRAL TX. ALONG WITH LOW DEWPT READINGS...MIN RH READINGS WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT /LOWEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS/. PORTIONS
OF THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SERN STATES...
SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE GULF AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RETURN
/LOW DEWPTS/ COMBINED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MIN
RH READINGS FROM 30-40 PERCENT. GIVEN RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..CROSBIE.. 11/22/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:53 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A POLAR VORTEX MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN
STATES. CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED IN EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LOW BY
EARLY THU...WITH A LEAD IMPULSE PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AT
THE SFC...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN/IA
TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/WI...STRONG WINDS
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS. THE WINDIER
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW RH WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
...WRN SD/WRN NEB...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WLY /DOWNSLOPE/ WINDS. SFC WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NWLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO KS. ONCE THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 60S.
...WRN KS/OK...
WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST ANOTHER DAY IN THIS
REGION...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL BE AOA 20 PERCENT WITH SFC WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORNING INVERSION WILL TAKE
SEVERAL HOURS TO BREAK...WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGEST WINDS TO THE
EARLY/MID AFTN. MARGINAL WINDS AND RH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
..TAYLOR.. 11/23/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST WED NOV 23 2005
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL ON THU. A MAJOR WINTER
SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A POTENT
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SRN PLAINS. IN THE WEST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FORCED
EWD AND WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING SYSTEM FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW NOW OFF CA COAST WILL TAKE A SLY TRACK ACROSS
BAJA. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE HOWEVER BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
..TAYLOR.. 11/23/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Wed Nov 30, 2005 9:41 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AND SRN OK / NRN AND NW TX /
SERN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL SINK SWD THROUGH ERN CO AND WRN KS...REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE
WITH A HIGH TO THE EAST TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND WITH LITTLE
MOISTENING...VERY LOW RH IS EXPECTED. THIS SAME AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND GULF COAST STATES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AND SRN OK / NRN AND NW TX /
SERN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN STATES
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
SOME MOISTENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...RH
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER ERN NM
/ FAR W TX TO THE 20S INTO N TX AND SRN OK. WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED S WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE LESS OVER SERN NM /
SWRN TX...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE MTNS. THE GREATEST FIRE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM N TX INTO ERN OK...WHERE KBDI VALUES
ARE IN EXCESS OF 600.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CRITICAL AREA...EXTENDING FROM NWRN OK TO NEAR AMARILLO TO CLOVIS
AND SHIFTING WINDS TO NWLY AT 15-20 MPH. BY THIS TIME...RH VALUES
WILL BE INCREASING AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOL DURING THE EVENING.
...SRN MS VALLEY EWD INTO GA/FL...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT RH LOW. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES OF 25-30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE SABINE RIVER EWD
INTO GA AND NRN FL WHILE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 60 DEGREES.
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH AND COOL TEMPERATURES/SHALLOW
MIXING LAYERS WILL TEMPER FIRE THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 11/30/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CST WED NOV 30 2005
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY...AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS QUICKLY E OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SRN PLAINS / LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER W...A POWERFUL
AND EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC COAST
STATES...AND WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE WRN STATES BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS.
...AL/GA/FL...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MIN
RH VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP FROM PREVIOUS DAY...SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 10 MPH OUT
OF THE NW. FIRE THREAT WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE EVENING WITH
GOOD RH RECOVERY AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
...SRN AND ERN OK / NRN TX...
A DRY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL KEEP RH VALUE LOW DURING THE
DAYTIME...FROM 20-30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON
PREVIOUS DAY...FROM 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE N.
..JEWELL.. 11/30/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2005 8:00 am
by TexasStooge
Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SERN
STATES...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING EWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW RH VALUES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE HIGH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT BUT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING BENEATH DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER W...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE ROCKIES WITH PRECIPITATION.
...CENTRAL AND NRN FLORIDA / SRN GA AND AL...
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY DUE TO A
VERY DRY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 60S F WILL ALLOW FOR MIN RH
VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE NEAR 10
MPH...SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL WHERE RH WILL ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER.
OVERALL...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY LIE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE REGION WHERE KBDI VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 400-600.
...SRN OK / NRN TX / WRN AR...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 50 IN OK TO NEAR 60 INTO CENTRAL TX.
RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH AFTERNOON MIN VALUES OF 20-30
PERCENT. NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 MPH...AND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODERATELY STRONG S WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL RETURN TO ERN NM AND WRN
TX TODAY...AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER ERN CO AND NERN NM. ALTHOUGH
WINDY...RH LEVELS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW DUE TO COOL
TEMPERATURES...AVERAGING 20-30 PERCENT.
..JEWELL.. 12/01/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CST THU DEC 01 2005
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM / WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE
WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER
THE SERN STATES WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM / WRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NM INTO WRN TX...AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAM SHIFTS SWD OVER THE AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH RH DIPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO
75-80 F. RH RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN
ABOVE 15-20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
...OK INTO NRN AND CENTRAL TX...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH
SUSTAINED SLY SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS. MITIGATING
FACTOR HERE WILL BE MARGINAL RH VALUES...AVERAGING 30-35 PERCENT.
GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS...SOME THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT RH LEVELS WILL RECOVERY QUICKLY BY EVENING. IF RH LEVELS
FALL BELOW CURRENT FORECAST VALUES...PORTIONS OF THIS AREA COULD BE
UPGRADED TO CRITICAL IN NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
...GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ALBEIT SOMEWHAT WEAKENED.
WHILE RH WILL STILL REMAIN LOW AT 25-30 PERCENT DURING THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S...WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 MPH.
..JEWELL.. 12/01/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...