STORM2K

the Aspen Fire is now at 21000 acres and 15% containment. Winds today have been a bit more westerly though still gusty. Vaisala/GAI, the people who operate the National Lightning Detection Network, have turn their recorded data over those investigating the cause of the fire but the assessment from the Vaisala people is that there were no strikes on Lemmon on June 17th the day the Aspen fire started-the strikes were concentrated in the Rincons where they triggered the Helen 2 fire.

Speaking of the Helen 2 fire which was listed as 35% contained last night, there seems to have been a flareup on this fire which is throwing more smoke than it has since the big blowup on the 19th so this one may be with us a bit longer than hoped for.

The Ash fire near Sierra Vista flared up a bit today and full containment is not expected until tomorrow night instead of tonight. It's throwing some smoke today but not a great deal. After an IR survey flight last night, the size of this fire has been scaled down to 560 acres. The original announcement that the fire may have been started by illegals was in error (for a change) but the real cause is even more idiotic. It was started by a maintenance worker using equipement that generates a lot of sparks. Now WTH anyone would be doing using that kind of equipment in an area with an extreme fire danger on a Red Flag Warning day is totally beyond me-this falls into the same category as the imbecile who drove his 30+ton Cement truck over the Hereford Road bridge (posted rated capacity at 15 tons) TWICE causing it to collapse. The maintenance worker needs to be fired for cause and the employer made to pay for the costs of putting out the fire.

Steve

The cause of this fire is just really idiotic, like you said... and about the cement truck is even more insane!

I hope all these fires in Arizona, especially the major ones, are contained VERY soon! :o

15% is an improvement, albeit a slow one. Hope the weather improves soon. I saw on TWC today a slight chance of storms in Eastern AZ on Saturday. Hope this brings rain and not just lightning.

wx247 wrote:15% is an improvement, albeit a slow one. Hope the weather improves soon. I saw on TWC today a slight chance of storms in Eastern AZ on Saturday. Hope this brings rain and not just lightning.

Don't be mislead by a 15%#..reports are now deferred directly from Wash DC...yes Kudos firefighters..however 15% is minscule and can be lost overnight if the winds shift..
DJ

I received this in my Weather Matrix emails. Thought some might find it interesting.

OSEI MEDIA ALERT #03175

SUBJECT: FIRES IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO

Heat signatures (red) and smoke plumes (light blue haze) are visible from
fires burning in Arizona and New Mexico. The Aspen Fire has charred
19,500 acres in Coronado National Forest. The Picture Fire has burned
12,286 acres in Tonto National Forest and the Helen's Two Fire has
scorched 933 acres in Saguaro National Park. This information is from the
National Interagency Fire Center's Incident Management Situation Report
from June 24, 2003. The pink areas visible in this image are due to solar
heating of the ground surface.

This image was produced from data taken by the NOAA-16 satellite.

The image is available at the OSEI Media Resource Page:

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEImedia.html or from the following link:

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Southwest/2003/FSMHSusSW175_N6L.jpg

A movie loop showing smoke plumes from the fires is available at:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Southwest/2003/FSMusAZ174_G10.avi
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Southwest/2003/FSMusAZ174_G10.mpg

Earlier images of the fires are also available on the OSEI page at:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Fires/US_Southwest/2003/

Please credit NOAA for this imagery if it is used in publication.

Thank you,

The OSEI Team
osei@noaa.gov

Heat is ON now...with 110 a possibility in the next few days in Phoenix. So that will not help the situation either. Perhaps the plus side will be less wind....but even that is no certainty.

Thanks for checking in Steve and DJ.

Do you think this could the pre-monsoon heat blast? If so then this is what we need to get some rain into the area!

Yeah, it is that time of the year so we should be getting the first signs of things a'changin right around now. Hopefully this is the real thing and not a false alarm.

The monsoon can't start soon enough over there, I hope yall get some soon!

I just heard on Fox that the fire is 25% contained now.

That's good news! 25% is 1/4 contained! I hope that that percentage keeps increasing day by day.

based upon the latest run of the GFS is that it COULD (repeat COULD) be in place over far SE AZ though weakly in the July 10-12 timeframe. The moisture boundary is forecast to be just about along the Santa Ritas with a clear dryline boundary and the moisture axis in NM. Note this does not preclude a dry dewpoint start earlier in places like PHX and TUS where the development of the Thermal Low could result in low level moisture influx from the Sea of Cortez but this would serve no real purpose since the moisture would be shallow and mix out during the day resulting in no activity. The Upper High is expected to be in the 590 Dm range which means hot but by no means near any records for us. The possible development of a Tropical system off the SW Mexican coast is another factor to consider. What is not good in all this is that to date we haven't seen much development in either the Central American or Mexican monsoon circulations which must be in place before we can start ours.

Latest report on the Aspen fire has it 4 miles from Oracle while the Helen II fire grew rapidly yesterday and is reported in the media now at 2000 acres.

Steve