Severe Wx Discussion - November 8, 2005
Posted: Mon Nov 07, 2005 11:55 pm
The last discussion was a complete bust. If this one is again then I will quit 
. I mean, I am not angry but if I create these topics and nobody replied then I'd look like a complete moron, and I'd be wasting a lot of time.
The NAM initialized pretty well on the 0Z run. Dewpoints around 70 in the GOM attm. By 0Z tomorrow, it shows dewpoints around 65 in the IL/IN vicinity, along with CAPE values up to 2000 and LI's down to -6.
If you ask me that is pretty impressive for November. SRH values over 200 m2s2 along and to the north of the Ohio River. The shear increases toward 6Z due to an approaching strong jet max, and the presence of a strong cap should preclude development until dark, but once the initial supercells fire, tornadoes aren't out of the possibility.
The GFS didn't initialize as well, dewpoints are too low. Thus, by 0Z tomorrow, it shows LI's of only -2, and lesser CAPE values. It too shows a strong jet max approaching the current SWODY2 SLGT area, however, it is delayed by a few hours.
Overall model agreement is good.
Summary: Expect initiation around sunset or after. But good shear (both speed and directional as it seems) will aid in the development of tornadic supercells. Greatest threat in central IL and IN, along the warm front. Setup is very similar to last time expect just a little to the north and better moisture to work with.
Post comments here, before, during, and after the event (latter one if necessary).
. I mean, I am not angry but if I create these topics and nobody replied then I'd look like a complete moron, and I'd be wasting a lot of time.
The NAM initialized pretty well on the 0Z run. Dewpoints around 70 in the GOM attm. By 0Z tomorrow, it shows dewpoints around 65 in the IL/IN vicinity, along with CAPE values up to 2000 and LI's down to -6.
If you ask me that is pretty impressive for November. SRH values over 200 m2s2 along and to the north of the Ohio River. The shear increases toward 6Z due to an approaching strong jet max, and the presence of a strong cap should preclude development until dark, but once the initial supercells fire, tornadoes aren't out of the possibility.
The GFS didn't initialize as well, dewpoints are too low. Thus, by 0Z tomorrow, it shows LI's of only -2, and lesser CAPE values. It too shows a strong jet max approaching the current SWODY2 SLGT area, however, it is delayed by a few hours.
Overall model agreement is good.
Summary: Expect initiation around sunset or after. But good shear (both speed and directional as it seems) will aid in the development of tornadic supercells. Greatest threat in central IL and IN, along the warm front. Setup is very similar to last time expect just a little to the north and better moisture to work with.
Post comments here, before, during, and after the event (latter one if necessary).