STORM2K

Watch out!!!

(Edited for accuracy) I removed the images since they were live and not longer show the "High Risk".

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF
WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863...

VALID 150822Z - 151015Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD
ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING
FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN
ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND
AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM
FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT. THOUGH THIS MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS
FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS
EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY
STRONGER CELL.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT
APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY
-- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK
WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2005


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583

This is only the second time that I have seen a high risk area for us. The last time it happened we had a tornado touchdown just north of Louisville. It's kind of weird to see transfomers popping on tv and then your power goes out. Hopefully there won't be any touchdowns today (but I doubt it).

The first Tornado Watches are up....ALREADY.

and another one just issued for areas east of the previous watch till 5PM CST.

jhamps10 wrote:and another one just issued for areas east of the previous watch till 5PM CST.

Thanks....updated the image.

Its going to be a very rough day across a large part of the nation. Please heed all warning and watch skyward. I am afraid this will be another life threatening event.

Having a PDS watch issued this early in the day can't be good. I'm keeping that entire area of the country in my thoughts.

weatherlover427 wrote:Having a PDS watch issued this early in the day can't be good. I'm keeping that entire area of the country in my thoughts.

Same thinking here. I'm afraid this will be a catastrophically wide event covering many states. 8:30 CST and already a Tornado Warning. It's going to be very busy today.

Not good as I have 2 sisters and 2 nieces in Memphis. I called them last night to give them a heads up for todya.

very busy day already. We have torando warnings in Evansville, IN as we speak!!!! UNCONFIRMED report of a torando touchdown in Posey County, IN by the public.

jhamps10 wrote:very busy day already. We have torando warnings in Evansville, IN as we speak!!!! UNCONFIRMED report of a torando touchdown in Posey County, IN by the public.

A funnel cloud was just reported by a trained observer just east of Mount Vernon, IN.

I have 3 cousins in the Mt. Vernon, IN area.

Eric

Good luck and Godspeed to all today (and you'll need it, storms will be traveling at 60-70 mph). Potential for strong tornadoes is pretty high.

The Watch Probability Table for PDS Tornado Watch 865 just issued are off the charts.

There's a 90% probability two more more tornadoes, and a 70% of a strong tornado (F2 or greater) occurring.

Got another PDS Tornado Watch (#866) to the north (including the St. Louis metro area, much of central Illinois, and southwestern Indiana. Busy day for the SPC and the local weather offices in those areas, for sure.

--snoopj

Some schools closing early b/c of the risk:

http://www.news25.us/global/story.asp?s=4120991

so I should be keeping an eye on the sky here in memphis?

^ YES. You're right under the gun and there's a nasty squall line heading your way as we speak.

yea i just checked and saw W. Memphis is under a Severe Tstorm warning now and its headed east, ah boy, as lnog as theres no hail here, my brand new car will be happy

wlfpack81 wrote:Some schools closing early b/c of the risk:

http://www.news25.us/global/story.asp?s=4120991

Is this normal? Do they usually close schools early for forecasted outbreaks?