Yikes!
Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2005 1:05 am
I'm in the middle of the moderate risk. Long-track tornadoes possible. 
Hatched area is for significant tornadoes, middle of that too.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_torn.gif
...GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
THE REGION AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL MS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. INITIALLY THE THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REGENERATION OR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM FORECAST
INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL
AL BY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 60 KT WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE LINE OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL INTO WRN GA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT
GRADUALLY DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.
Hatched area is for significant tornadoes, middle of that too.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_torn.gif
...GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. ON THE SOUTH END OF THE SYSTEM...THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES SPREADING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS
THE REGION AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LINE OF STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL MS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. INITIALLY THE THREAT
SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY BUT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REGENERATION OR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE APPEARS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM FORECAST
INSTABILITY MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL
AL BY AFTERNOON SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 60 KT WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE LINE OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE TN EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL INTO WRN GA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILE COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA
SUGGESTING TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. A FEW STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE THREAT
GRADUALLY DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.
