STORM2K

I have been looking for the day 3 outlook for october 24 2001 for quite some time now. I have seen the day two outlook issued on October 23 2001, but never saw the day three outlook issued october 22 2001. Does anyone here know where i can find it, have it, or does anyone at least remember what the outlook was like? Id be quite interested.

WaitingForSiren wrote:I have been looking for the day 3 outlook for october 24 2001 for quite some time now. I have seen the day two outlook issued on October 23 2001, but never saw the day three outlook issued october 22 2001. Does anyone here know where i can find it, have it, or does anyone at least remember what the outlook was like? Id be quite interested.

Day 3 outlooks were not issued at the time of that event, at least on an operational and public basis.


EDIT...Found some more info, turns out it was just barely missed...
"On November 7, 2001, the SPC began issuing Convective Outlooks for the Day 3 period to the public. These outlooks are similar to the Day 2 outlooks in that the probabilities represent the probabilities of any type of severe weather hazard (tornadoes, large hail, damaging wind) within 25 miles of any point. Because of the large and increasing amount of uncertainty forecasting severe weather 3 days ahead of time no attempt is made to forecast areas of significant severe weather hazards."

Ah i see but thats odd, because ive found day three outlooks for the infamous April 6 2001 bust, so i guess that was issued during the "experimental" stage? Ah youre right, it was, i just checked it out.

Okay, now what about the one issued for the November 10th 2002 outbreak? does anyone know where i can find the day 3 outlook for that, not to mention the Day 2 outlooks for it as well?

WaitingForSiren wrote:Ah i see but thats odd, because ive found day three outlooks for the infamous April 6 2001 bust, so i guess that was issued during the "experimental" stage? Ah youre right, it was, i just checked it out.

Okay, now what about the one issued for the November 10th 2002 outbreak? does anyone know where i can find the day 3 outlook for that, not to mention the Day 2 outlooks for it as well?

Doesn't the SPC have archives?

Yes but only from January 23 2003 till now, and in their actual archive you can get text files of their outlooks and mesoscale discussions but only from 95-99 so anything from 00-02 is not possible to find unless somebody else saved it.

I'd have to check and see for Nov 2002. I'm not sure I have that information or know where to find it, but I'll see.

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yes but only from January 23 2003 till now, and in their actual archive you can get text files of their outlooks and mesoscale discussions but only from 95-99 so anything from 00-02 is not possible to find unless somebody else saved it.

That's strange about 00-02...seems like sloppy SPC record keeping if you ask me.

Yeah thats what i thought as well. Well, technically you can access the day one outlooks for 00-02, but it doesnt show probabilities. If you visit the "severe thunderstorm events" page you can , and you can also find radar loops. Its cool and all, but without probabilities/day two or three outlooks, its pretty stupid.

I just love analysing SPZ outlooks and comparing them to what happened or how well it was forecasted.

WaitingForSiren wrote:I just love analysing SPZ outlooks and comparing them to what happened or how well it was forecasted.

Then you might like this site...

http://sphs.angeltowns.net/A_R_Wehrle/highrisk.html


It has many of the High Risks from 1988 (outbreak days and busts), including SWODY1's, WW's, PSWO's and MCD's, along with NWS summaries, storm reports, and chaser accounts (if applicable).

EDIT: Not many of the have the outlooks, but there are a good number that do. Just FYI.

Yeah I have seen that site and ive been to it many times, its a great site. Thanks anyway though.