STORM2K

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/maps-severe ... wx&large=0

I wonder if the SPC will give us a moderate chance on the next update?

I don't want severe weather, I want an arctic blast or something. lol.

What times does the SPC update the outlooks?

they up date at a2 or so in the morn 6-7 in the morn than 11:30 ish than 2ish than 7ish i dont know about MDT threat well see the l;ast one was a bust with a capital B

I don't care how severe the thunderstorms get in my area, I just want some rain falling over here!!!!!

I really doubt SPC will upgrade to moderate tomorrow. Surface instability is going to be lacking everywhere but at the coast. At least, that's how it seems based on everything I've read so for in all the AFD's.

The new soundings over CA show this system is more potent than previously thought. I would expect the SPC to raise their risk as well.

yeah i sure hope u get rain too i dont know the was SPC has been lately MDT risk wouldnt suprise me nut it will be a bust like last time

It doesn't matter how strong the system is. No moisture=no severe. And the dewpoints in the GOM aren't even 60 yet. Moisture needs to advect northward - and fast.

From local NWS this afternoon:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY MONDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT AND
JET STREAM ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF LOUISIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

No upgrade to moderate per the latest from SPC...

Huckster wrote:No upgrade to moderate per the latest from SPC...

No surprise, given the NAM forecasts LI's struggling to reach -2 and CAPE's barely above 500. But PW Value's are high, and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see some flooding issues further east.

Just becuase the threat is not at moderate does not mean there won't be any dangerous severe weather. Although it may not be numerous and widespread, there still will be possibilities of damaging wind, hail, and even a very slight chance of tornados... Everyone one around SE TX and LA should monitor the weather closely tommorow and tommorow night.

I dont really expect any severe weather today. SPC has a slight risk out (and what was accuweather smoking when they issued a moderate risk?), but its a low end one and I agree with SPC. The severe threat will be very low, and theres widespread light rain going on in texas and lousiana right now. I could see two reports of wind damage near the coast or a VERY brief tornado, but thats it.

I think that any severe weather in SE Texas today will be isolated. Now if it would have been sunny and hot right now, I would be screaming tornados, but it is not. Instead, it is cloudy and somewhat cool. Shear values will be quite impressive though, and by afternoon a few strong thuderstorms may develop. The main storm threats today are probably strong winds and weak tornados, small hail is also possible. But the main threat today should be heavy, soaking rains which may ease the drought some and also cause minor flooding. Further east, into Louisiana, I think there is a slightly higher risk of severe weather as a broken squall line may try to set up later today around Houston and then move east. I think any type of extreme widespread severe weather is out of the question here in Texas. I think that at the *WORST* that Texas gets 2 tornado reports, 10 damaging wind reports, and 5 hail reports...if it is any worse than that I will be surprised, but the chances are that it will be even lower than that. Any tornados should be weak with F0 or F1 intensities (similar to the winds and damage of a Tropical storm for F0, or a Cat. 1/2 Hurricane for an F1)

I'm not impressed... this storm is lacking the things needed for severe weather(other than an isolated storm). Looks like a heavy rain event though.

I agree Brent. I think the biggest threat may be some large hail simply because there will be some very cold air aloft with this system and the dynamics point towards that, but I'm not expecting any tornadoes and only and isolated wind report or two if some of the storms gust out. But without higher dewpoints and no sun at all to heat things up, looks mostly like a good old-fashioned rain for SE TX.

Even if there was more instability, the storm just isnt ripe for tornadoes. The main surface low is way up in Wisconsin, with just a cold front draped across the south and a few other surface lows, one in southern texas. If there happened to be a lot more instability, I could see some surpercell clusters with hail and brief tornadoes, but thats about it.

yeah looks that way to me too

I don't know if anything severe will develop, but after light to moderate rain showing up on Texas radar all day, a stronger line is now forming as it approaches South and Southeast Texas, and up toward NW La. It's really strengthened quite a bit in the last few hours.