STORM2K

Looks like a pretty nice set-up for a Severe Weather Outbreak across the Gulf Coast Region this weekend.

Hmmm... We shall see.....

Yes I heard. But I also heard from a little birdy that this event will be a bust again ...no, j/k, we have plenty of time to watch this system.

Here's a from the SPC:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

LATEST GFS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE DAY 4-6
PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES SPREAD EAST FROM A LARGER SCALE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WRN
U.S. BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DETAILS WITH REGARD TO SYSTEM STRENGTH AND
TIMING REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT INDICATES A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
ACROSS EAST TX AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD EXISTS IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH REGARD TO THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE IN
GUIDANCE...ONGOING COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN ALONG THE WEST
COAST...AND THE FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS STILL SOUTH
OF THE BEARING STRAIT...PREDICTABILITY APPEARS TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
AN OUTLOOK AREA.


The NWS already gives Houston a 60% chance of rain, which is pretty unusual considering how conservative they usually are.

I doubt it. The storm wont be too powerful and probably will never become a "major storm", and the strongest energy also appears to be across the northern side of the storm, up into missouri and illinois...not really favorable for a severe weather outbreak when the best moisture will only be in southern texas and lousiana. I could see a few hail and wind reports but thats it, and mostly across eastern oklahoma and arkansas.

Yeah looks to be just not severe but a few strong storms IMO mayube a watch will be issed and a few warnings. Nothing to frat about.