STORM2K

Issued at: 1:50 PM CST 2/1/06, expires at: 9:00 PM CST 2/1/06

Tornado watch 24 is in effect until 900 pm cst for the following locations Tx ., Texas Counties Included Are:
Austin, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes, Hardin, Harris, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Matagorda, Montgomery, Newton, Orange, Polk, San Jacinto, Tyler Victoria, Waller, Washington, Wharton.

I am afraid we are in for a wild ride this time around. Very warm and moist for Feb 1st and a deep diving trough over SW TX spells trouble.

I wouldnt really call it a deep trough, and its positive tilt and moving very slowly. I think the severe threat will ve bery isolated, as weak convection has already taken shape over Houston and will limit instability.

From the SPC:

...SERN TX/SRN LA-MS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP DEPICTS COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER LA THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STRONG DPVA/LIFT WAS ALREADY ACTING ON MOISTURE
AT THE TOP OF THE CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM EAST OF SAT TO
NORTH OF HOU. EXPECT ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. A CLUSTER OR TWO
OF HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS NEAR/WITHIN MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPREAD
NEWD TOWARD THE TXK/SHV AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...MORE
VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND LARGER HAIL...WILL LIKELY OCCUR
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO EXPAND
INLAND ACROSS THE TX COAST FROM VCT NEWD TO WEST OF HOU AS SURFACE
LOW WEST OF VCT DEEPENS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...STRONGER WARM SECTOR INITIATION
APPEARS LIKELY WHEN CRP 18Z SOUNDING IS ADJUSTED FOR LATEST INFLOW
AIR MASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S/. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AS STORMS TAP GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. TORNADO AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST FROM VCT THROUGH HOU/GLS AREA.
EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS APPEARS LIKELY BY LATE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER
LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND AIDS IN
UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS
AS IT SPREADS EWD ALONG THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MANY cells on Doppler around the area are beginning to show signs of 2-D shear and hail. I think that supercells may develop to the SW of the city and move NE. We need to watch carefully over the next few hours. As of this writing I am now getting thunder at my house.

I am too, check out the Houston Lighning Detector:

http://198.46.75.215/detector.htm

(@ home today sick unfortuantely, but I am liking the storms)

Whoa! Hail just showed-up on dollper just S/SW of my house in the last frame!

yeah, I see that too. Looks like the hail signature is coming right for you. Should be small though. Report any hail if you get it.

Just some sprinkles here...

Showery weather here in Austin with some storms to our immediate northeast.

You guys in Houston take care!

Heres a update from the SPC:(NOTE) Allmost a MODERATE risk of severe wx.

yeah looks impressive from the SPC. The weird thing though is it now seems like nothing is really firing up to our SW anymore. There are some strong cells to the NE of Houston but thats it as far as strong stuff goes. I am wondering if we will see anything pop up to the SW (that is strong) and move towards Houston within the next 2 hours. After sunset it may simply become too late and another severe weather bust may be in store. Seems like these last few possibilities of severe weather have fallen short of their potential.....IF only it was April or May and we had some 85-95 degree heat and sunshine. THAT is what we need to spark off these storms a little better.

Locals here are saying we should get some thunderstorms this afternoon but the best possibilityof severe weather here is after dark...between 7pm and 9pm.

WaitingForSiren you have been on target through the afternoon. So far you have pinned the event.

Wow the low clouds are moving extremely rapidly to the N. I have only seen this speed from tropical storms or hurricanes. Simply amazing speed this evening SE of Houston. You can easly see the turning in the atmosphere visually between the low and mid levels.

3 cloud layers with different speed and direction.

well, I just try and forecast what my gut tells me. After watching and analyzing many severe weather events, it seems to come natural to me whether its going to happen, or it isnt, sometimes my gut just tells me. I used to be sort of an extremist and just be like "oh yeah theres going to be a big outbreak", but now I try to take it seriously and say what i think REALLY WILL happen.

So far, no hail or any severe weather here. I have a 101 fever so I've been away from the computer most of the PM, unfortunately.

WaitingForSiren wrote:well, I just try and forecast what my gut tells me. After watching and analyzing many severe weather events, it seems to come natural to me whether its going to happen, or it isnt, sometimes my gut just tells me. I used to be sort of an extremist and just be like "oh yeah theres going to be a big outbreak", but now I try to take it seriously and say what i think REALLY WILL happen.

You don't forecast with guts. However, climatology did suggests this would be a bust (although I am not implying that it will be).

If you were saying that I was an extremist (though I don't think that was directed to me) well that's what my guts were telling me, that this had potential. However since the vort max has slowed down the best dynamics and lift won't come until after dark. Current storms are elevated, though, due to a lack of sufficient boundary layer moisture, and the availability of moisture when the main part of the system arrives - that is what determines today.

well the severe event was pretty much a bust. Yes there were a few warnings and a tornado watch, but all the dynamics were not there for this event to have gotten out of hand. If the light rain and clouds would not of moved in earlier in the afternoon, then I have no doubt that a larger event would have unfolded, but that did not happen, and with little instability left, storms could only manage to briefly become severe (If even). We will have to wait until spring to get a true event.

It's 7:21 and the severe threat looks to have entirely deminished. I was just hoping for at least one good cell to drop some heavy rain on me but that hasn't happened either and it looks like my time has come and gone here in central Montgomery County.