STORM2K

I just ran across this on the NHC site. Forecaster Stacy Stewart is a gentleman who's words I take seriously...we've chatted, and believe me....he is one of the best..

Here's an excerpt from the 10 p.m. CDT discussion on T.S. Bill...


WHILE BILL MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE .

IN ADDITION...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM
TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY INLAND FRESH
FLOODING.

FORECASTER STEWART

**I well remember the long lived F2 and F3 tornadoes spawned by the remains of hurricane Danny in August of 1985 across northern Alabama....Audrey in June 1957 also spawned some significant tornadoes in the southeast...

It may be a wild and volatile afternoon in the southeast tomorrow....more like an April or May day than July. I strongly urge everyone in Alabama, Georgia, the Florida panhandle, and southern Tennessee to closely monitor weather Tuesday....and keep your NOAA Weather Radios on the ALARM mode (or monitor a trusted media outlet).

Please stay safe!
Perry

In addition to a serious flooding threat, the shear parameters with Bill are becoming quite conducive for someone to experience a significant tornado outbreak ...

Mobile, AL right now (wrkh's neck of the woods had had two tornado warnings and a confirmed tornado on the ground as I type this)...

Bill is a lot like Tropical Storm Beryl in 1994 in regards to appearance ... it was one of South Carolina's worst tornado outbreaks in association of the decaying system ... 26 tornadoes, the worst hitting Lexington, SC ... the squall line which barreled through here in Ladson was absolutely unbelievable ... it dumped 1.80" of rain in just 20 minutes, and while the line moved east slowly, the individual cells moved over 50 mph to the NNE (training) ...

Also, Bill is reminiscent of Danny, IMO ... how the structure of Bill is better than it has looked with a well-defined center and excellent outflow representation..

Bill may be weakening as a tropical system, but it's not losing it punch ...

SF

Hope wrkh is OK! :o It sure does look like most of the Southeast has a very high risk for severe weather this afternoon... I hope everyone in the affected areas monitor the latest developments and most of all, STAY SAFE!

A couple of tornadoes today in SE GA were confirmed by SPC on the storm reports ... currently, a tornado watch was reissued for SE GA and Southeast South Carolina (indcluding my area) now until 4 am Wednesday morning ... the best line right extends where the warm front lies across from roughly Augusta to Orangeburg with a strong long-lived line of thunderstorms along the Savannah River ...