STORM2K

What was the year like leading up to the tornado outbreak? Was there any early and rare severe weather activity in 1974? Does 2006 look like a similar year to 1974?

Does anyone suspect 2006 will be an interesting year for tornadoes?

The winter of 73-74 was exceptionally warm, and in many respects, this winter has been similar to the winter preceding the outbreak. In fact, many things (above-average GOM SST, La Nina and a mild winter) indicate a possibly very active spring, especially for the SE, OH and TN Valleys, and the Midwest. Much like the spring of 98.

What about southern Ontario? Should I be ready for a possibly active year for thunderstorms?

conestogo_flood wrote:What about southern Ontario? Should I be ready for a possibly active year for thunderstorms?

Don't know. Though I can't rule it out.

Looking into the future into mid mach, it looks that all of southeast and midwest will be very active of severe weather if all this heat keeps going.

You cant look at whether a winter was mild or not and then determine if there will be a lot of severe weather. It depends more on the short term climological changes.

WaitingForSiren wrote:You cant look at whether a winter was mild or not and then determine if there will be a lot of severe weather. It depends more on the short term climological changes.

That's what another person on another board said, or at least something along the lines, comparing this upcoming spring tornado season to 1974. Winter temps may not have too much impact, but I wonder, will the warm Gulf SST's?

Here's the link to the quote:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... &p=1050779

Looks like a strong system, but then again the models always tend to show mega troughs in the long range, so Im going to throw it out for now. I mean there will probably be a storm during the march 10-13 period like they say, but the magnitude remains to be seen.

And from what ive studied, it seems to me that most major tornado outbreaks occur in years which had a crappy tornado season. You hardly EVER see two major outbreaks or more in the same month, except rare april or may events, usually. Wasnt the super outbreak the only REALLY big outbreak of 1974? I cant remember. I know that year had over 1000 tornadoes, but i dunno if those were in small events or what.

And about the pattern preceeding the super outbreak, there was a smaller outbreak two days before the april 4 one. The tornadoes werent long track, but i think there were a few f2 and f3 intensity ones. That storm was similar to the one that produced the big outbreak, just weaker.

WaitingForSiren wrote:Looks like a strong system, but then again the models always tend to show mega troughs in the long range, so Im going to throw it out for now. I mean there will probably be a storm during the march 10-13 period like they say, but the magnitude remains to be seen.

And from what ive studied, it seems to me that most major tornado outbreaks occur in years which had a crappy tornado season. You hardly EVER see two major outbreaks or more in the same month, except rare april or may events, usually. Wasnt the super outbreak the only REALLY big outbreak of 1974? I cant remember. I know that year had over 1000 tornadoes, but i dunno if those were in small events or what.

And about the pattern preceeding the super outbreak, there was a smaller outbreak two days before the april 4 one. The tornadoes werent long track, but i think there were a few f2 and f3 intensity ones. That storm was similar to the one that produced the big outbreak, just weaker.

I've been looking at the models at that time also. Just got to see what plays out for the midwest. And plus the fact that I'll be heading to indiania at that time to visit relatives.

conestogo_flood wrote:What about southern Ontario? Should I be ready for a possibly active year for thunderstorms?

Absolutely. If the Midwest and South are all active, you will be too.

Speaking of 4/3/74, love your avatar, wxmann!! You seem to have quite a library of cool images.

isobar wrote:Speaking of 4/3/74, love your avatar, wxmann!! You seem to have quite a library of cool images.

Thanks! I posted the site a week ago... in fact in that link there was a radar image out of Lexington, KY... and what I realized that though on satellite images they might look like they are congealing into a squall line, when in fact they were remaining discrete despite being so close to one another, each supercell producing families of strong, long-track tornadoes. It'll be amazing if we see one of those types of events ever again in our lives.

Yeah, that would be a heck of a thing. It's difficult to comprehend six F5's in one day especially since we haven't seen one in 7 years. Can you imagine the deluge of high resolution images it would produce with todays technology?

I missed the site you posted a week ago - but just found the thread. Kewl! I know what I'll be doing for the next hour.

The 1970s sure did have a lot of wild weather. You had the Outbreak mentioned in this thread, the Cleveland weather Bomb/Blizzard (pressure of 955 mb), The Groundhog Day Gale of 1976 (which also had a pressure of 950 mb, perhaps lower, and put downtown Bangor ME under 12 ft of storm surge), the Blizzard of 1978, and several very cold winters.

What was the year like leading up to the tornado outbreak? Was there any early and rare severe weather activity in 1974? Does 2006 look like a similar year to 1974?

Does anyone suspect 2006 will be an interesting year for tornadoes?

BUMP

Think I answered my own question.

I think I jynxed this year...

Nice bump. Right on the 21st anniversary of the outbreak.

Didn't even realize it! This is... creepy(?)!

22nd.

After the last two outbreaks I am going to have to say that this active season should continue to get worse this month and next. This will probably be one of the more active severe years of the last many and I expect at least one F5 report within the next few months.

Beam wrote:22nd.

It's April and on some of my tests I still right the year 2005 accidently, not 2006. So no surprise I would mix that up, lol.