STORM2K

I've decided to start this thread for conditions in southeast Florida. I'll post updates from the Miami NWS here.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 140857
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND YUCUTAN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
S FLA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. ONLY
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHRA WITH THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT IT IS BECOMING DOUBTFUL WHETHER
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NEARLY ZONAL. AT ANY RATE, NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE WAY OF WX THIS
WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS FAIRLY CALM THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN SE TO S
AT LESS THAN 15 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO SCA CRITERIA AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN RAPIDLY VEER TO THE E ON
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO S FLA ON WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BUT RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 66 78 63 / 5 10 10 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 67 80 68 / 5 10 10 5
MIAMI 85 66 80 66 / 5 10 10 5
NAPLES 81 63 78 59 / 5 10 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

30

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1023 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

ATLC COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM

AMZ555-150030-
/O.CON.KMLB.SC.Y.0014.060315T1200Z-060315T2000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
1023 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING NORTH 15 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FEET LATE.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS BECOMING CHOPPY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING.
.WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS CHOPPY.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET IN
A NORTHEAST SWELL. INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.
.THURSDAY...EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS MOSTLY SMOOTH.
.FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

$$

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

I think this March-May period is going to be quite dry for us, a little more dry than normal, and also a little warmer than normal. The cold fronts seem to be losing their punch and washing out rather early on.

Interesting....from the Key West AFD, 3/15:

".FORECASTS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST...IN
THE MEAN...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DAILY WIND AND WEATHER
PATTERNS WILL BE MODULATED BY MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE CELLS
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR NIL. LOCAL SEA WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS...AND ARE NOW MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S."

That strong S. FL sun is doing its work....and looks as though it will continue to be able to heat those waters. If we don't get any late season cold fronts or rain events from here until the traditional start of the rainy season, our waters are going to be quite toasty for the Mean Season.

Latest Miami NWS discussion...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 161921
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
221 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN U.S. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT (ALBEIT WEAK) THROUGH OUR COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE IT DEEPENS
REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUE. GFS BRINGS ASSOCIATED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME TUE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAT THE RESENT FRONTS WE HAVE HAD WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) COOLING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK. STILL WE KNOW MODELS TEND TO
FLIP BACK AND FORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO WILL
NOT BE SURPRISE IF THIS SCENARIO CHANGES COMPLETELY BY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY HOWEVER...SEAS COULD
DETERIORATE ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM AS WINDS BECOME NORTH 10
TO 15 KNOTS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MEAN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 35%
FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE ONLY OTHER PROBLEMATIC PERIOD COULD BE IN THE EXTENDED
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 82 62 81 / 10 10 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 67 82 64 82 / 5 10 5 5
MIAMI 65 83 65 82 / 5 10 5 5
NAPLES 62 79 62 77 / 10 15 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

47

000
FPUS72 KMFL 150651
NOWMFL

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

FLZ073-074-150900-
WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHARK VALLEY...MIAMI
151 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006

.NOW...
THROUGH 4 AM...PATCHY FOG WILL ENVELOPE SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY...GENERALLY LIMITING VISIBILITY TO 2 MILES OR LESS. THE
FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
FLORIDA TURNPIKE BETWEEN KENDALL DRIVE AND HOMESTEAD.

$$

000
FXUS62 KMFL 181811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST
TO NAPLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
REST OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...THE SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SWING FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...THE DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT NO RAINFALL.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY END
OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE FOR THE FIRST SPRING WEEKEND OF THE
YEAR.

THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANCE TO GET SOME SHOWERS WILL BE FROM ABOUT
THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANCE IS SLIGHT AT BEST.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY INCREASE UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SLOWLY DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN AROUND 80 OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS TO MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. THE DEW POINTS
HAVE BEEN FALLING A LITTLE BIT INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE CWA...WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BEEN
MAINLY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS WHILE ONLY GETTING UP TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS...DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. THEREFORE...THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COULD STILL FALL DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS FOR ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SO AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE THE CRITICAL VALUES...DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE CWA BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SO NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE
FIRE WEATHER DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 62 81 66 85 / 5 5 5 5
FORT LAUDERDALE 64 82 68 85 / 5 5 5 5
MIAMI 65 83 69 86 / 5 5 5 5
NAPLES 63 82 64 85 / 5 5 5 5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

54

000
FXUS62 KMFL 201928
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
228 PM EST MON MAR 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA...AS
NICELY DEPICTED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY....RESULTING IN
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP THROUGH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCAL WINDS
SHOULD VEER SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE UPPER RIDGE DOMININANCE HAS KEPT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
FAIRLY LOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND AN INCH.
MOISTURE WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH TOMORROW EVEN WITH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEFORE THE DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TOMORROW
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID AND
EVEN UPPER 80S IN PLACES. A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADD A REINFORCING SHOT TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFSX AND ECMWF DEPICT A LOW FORMING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE STATE. THE 12Z MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS
A PLAUSIBLE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A NOD TO THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS FOR
NOW. EXTENDED MODELS POINT TO A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS
MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE SECOND PUSH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A CAUTION
STATEMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE
NEXT FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GOOD DISPERSION VALUES TOMORROW. POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW NIGHT OVER AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE. NO
HUMIDITY PROBLEMS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 88 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 87 69 82 / 10 5 10 5
MIAMI 72 87 68 83 / 10 5 10 5
NAPLES 69 82 68 78 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CHRISTENSEN