STORM2K

It's still a ways out, but it looks like a significant severe weather episode is likely next Thursday. Many of the same areas affected by the march 12 2006 outbreak could be affected. Stay tuned.

Lots could change between now and then.

Yeah, but overall it looks promising. Probably a good hail event with several tornadoes/clusters of tornadoes possible.

The actual synoptic setup, with regards to fronts, drylines, lows, etc., reminds me a bit of 4/26/91, but it's too early to tell instability with ANY certainty (and there was plenty on 4/26/91).

Tornadotony, its funny you say that because I totally thought the same thing, but didnt want to post it and freak everyone out LOL. I personally dont think till be comparable to 4/26/91, but I could see a large moderate risk area.

I hope it pulls thru...NWS in my area continues to mention severe weather on thursday...hopefully this isnt as disappointing as the last "no show" outbreak for my area

I think this type of system would offer a good shot at storms for your area. These types of troughs usually produce storms over a broad area as opposed to the ones like march 12.

How about all the way down to SE Texas? Do you think we have a shot of some severe stuff too? I am ready for some good storms!

WaitingForSiren wrote:Tornadotony, its funny you say that because I totally thought the same thing, but didnt want to post it and freak everyone out LOL. I personally dont think till be comparable to 4/26/91, but I could see a large moderate risk area.

I agree. It would take a whole ot of instability to get a 4/26 going, and I just don't see that. With that said, if the models stay close to current projections, I do see quite a tornado event possible next week.

Extremeweatherguy wrote:How about all the way down to SE Texas? Do you think we have a shot of some severe stuff too? I am ready for some good storms!

Maybe...You do have easy access to gulf moisture and if that dryline and the system reaches that far south, you may have some...probably not as much as farther north areas, but there maybe some scattered severe ones

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
WRN AK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
MOVING EWD FROM WRN-CENTRAL CONUS DURING DAYS 4-7. LATEST TWO
OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE INTENSE AND SLY IN TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAN BEFORE. MEANWHILE UKMET...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL AND
MANY SPECTRAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE REMAINED DEEP/INTENSE WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY NWD SHIFT IN MEAN TRACK...SIMILAR TO
LATEST ECMWF. GULF AIR MASS SHOULD EXPERIENCE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROPA BY DAYS 5-7...PERMITTING ROBUST MOIST SECTOR RETURN FOR THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
EPISODE IN CENTRAL CONUS...PARTICULARLY ON THE 30TH...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL THE 29TH AND/OR 31ST.

SPC seems very confident in this as am I. I think this event will be the second biggest outbreak this year (dont think it will rival March 12, but you never know...)

I'm still waiting for the first good thunderstorms for the season...make that the year actually for here in central NC.

Eric

Don't bet on it with this storm.

WaitingForSiren wrote:Don't bet on it with this storm.

Yep, more than likely will have wait until early or mid April.

WaitingForSiren wrote:

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
WRN AK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
MOVING EWD FROM WRN-CENTRAL CONUS DURING DAYS 4-7. LATEST TWO
OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS HAVE BECOME MORE INTENSE AND SLY IN TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAN BEFORE. MEANWHILE UKMET...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL AND
MANY SPECTRAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE REMAINED DEEP/INTENSE WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY NWD SHIFT IN MEAN TRACK...SIMILAR TO
LATEST ECMWF. GULF AIR MASS SHOULD EXPERIENCE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT
FROPA BY DAYS 5-7...PERMITTING ROBUST MOIST SECTOR RETURN FOR THIS
SYSTEM. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
EPISODE IN CENTRAL CONUS...PARTICULARLY ON THE 30TH...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL THE 29TH AND/OR 31ST.

SPC seems very confident in this as am I. I think this event will be the second biggest outbreak this year (dont think it will rival March 12, but you never know...)

I'm sure quite a few people said that about 1/21/99. Then came 4/8-4/9 and 5/3. Let's not jinx ourselves to another big outbreak (although I think it's inevitable with the strength of the storm systems thus far this year).

Yeah, I just dunno. I have a hard time seeing two major outbreaks in one month, especially in a month like March when abundant moisture is not always available.

WaitingForSiren wrote:Yeah, I just dunno. I have a hard time seeing two major outbreaks in one month, especially in a month like March when abundant moisture is not always available.

Go find a copy of Significant Tornadoes by Tom Grazulis (it's out of print, so check the ref. section of your library), and look at 3/12, 3/20, and 3/26/76. Trust me if you can't find the book. It has happened, can happen, and will happen again.

It seems to be setting up to be a messy situation

Oh I believe you, I just dont have a lot of confidence that 60 dew points will make it too far north on Thursday. I hope at least 50s dew points make it into MN so we could get some storms, but it isnt looking VERY promising right now.

There were four outbreaks last November though (6th, 12th, 15th, 27th).