STORM2K

There seem to be a lot of unknowns about what will happen tomorrow. It seems that, if there is a significant outbreak, the Ohio Valley should get the worst. Any thoughts?

The southern most counties of southwestern Ontario are in the slight risk. The Weather Network says marginal severe possible.

conestogo_flood wrote:The southern most counties of southwestern Ontario are in the slight risk. The Weather Network says marginal severe possible.

I agree, that is in the northern part of the threat area.

I say only a slight risk of severe weather in the northern part. Isolated tornado, hail, and gusty winds.

From last night here in southern Ontario...


SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 5:26 PM EST FRIDAY 31 MARCH 2006.
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WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON.

..LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING..

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

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==DISCUSSION==
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COLLIDING WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MICHIGAN IN A LINE FROM
SAGINAW TO NORTHEASTERN INDIANA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 70 KM/H AND MAY MOVE INTO REGIONS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON TO LAKE ST CLAIR TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE AFTER 7 PM. A TORNADO
WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER..IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN..
AND ANY STORMS WHICH DO CROSS INTO ONTARIO WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE COOLER WATERS AND STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND UPDATES TO THIS WATCH AND POTENTIAL WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 7:22 PM EST FRIDAY 31 MARCH 2006.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WINDSOR - LEAMINGTON - ESSEX COUNTY
=NEW= SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY.

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==DISCUSSION==

AT 7:15 PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
THE ABOVE REGIONS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ABOVE REGIONS BETWEEN
8:00 PM AND 10:00 PM.

Also here are some pictures from our (tommy and my) first storm chase of the year on Thursday.

Rotating wall cloud:


Rotation and small funnel with RFD cut visible:


Rapid rotation passing almost overhead before 50+mph winds and dime hail begin pelting our location:


Big hail found in drifts on the side of the road:


Funnel cloud:


Contrast enhanced version of the above pic:


We're also leaving OUN shortly for today's chase in wrn okla so will hopefully have more neat pics to post sometime tomorrow.