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Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - April 3
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 5:21 am
by brunota2003
Hey guys, we in for some nasty wx, say prayers for us and folks in Va, etc.:
SPC AC 030557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON APR 03 2006
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE E COAST STATES FROM
THE DELMARVA REGION SSWWD INTO NERN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
EARLY...AND THEN ACROSS THE E COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- INCLUDING 70 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK -- WILL MOVE ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD CREST THE
APPALACHIANS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE E COAST STATES FROM THE DELMARVA
REGION SWD TO GA.
...E COAST STATES...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY THIS PERIOD FROM
MD/DE/VA SWD INTO NERN GA...AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
PUSH MEAN-LAYER CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION NOW OVER THE TN
VALLEY REGION WILL RE-INTENSIFY AHEAD OF FRONT...INITIALLY FROM WRN
VA SSWWD INTO WRN SC AROUND 18Z.
DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AS STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. STORMS
SHOULD ORGANIZE WITH TIME INTO A LINE -- WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/BOWS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS VA AND NC...WHERE UPPER FORCING SHOULD
BE STRONGER. FURTHER S INTO SC AND NERN GA...MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN FORECAST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES -- WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONGER TORNADOES MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA
WHERE MODELS SUGGEST BACKED/SSELY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF APPARENT
LEE TROUGH.
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
..GOSS/JEWELL.. 04/03/2006
Special WX Statement for my area:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
531 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-032015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...
WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE...
POLLOCKSVILLE...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...
BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...
MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...
JACKSONVILLE...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...
SOUTHERN SHORES
531 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO VIRGINIA THIS MORNING
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES
EAST.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER PLANS NOW BEFORE THE
STORMS APPROACH. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
WINGENROTH
ok, I am out, gtg to school sadly enough...why couldnt this happen on a weekend? if I miss it I will be highly upset...will try to pass pics along after the t-storms roll thru if anything good happens...peace out...
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:31 am
by CrazyC83
We saw what happened yesterday...24 people were killed...and this is the same system. Be prepared for anything.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:36 am
by Skywatch_NC
CrazyC83 wrote:We saw what happened yesterday...24 people were killed...and this is the same system. Be prepared for anything.
And 19 of those alone in Tennessee.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:44 am
by CrazyC83
NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.
The severe weather yesterday should redevelop over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic today. The greatest risk will be closer to the Atlantic, especially along the I-95 corridor from about Florence to Richmond. However, from Lake Erie to the Georgia coast is fair game for severe weather. The Level 4 is a precautionary more than anything; the risk is probably more in Level 3 territory but after watching yesterday's tragic events, a heads-up is warranted due to the fact it is the same system.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:46 am
by Matt-hurricanewatcher
So you expect tornaodes? I say theres a chance for some.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:47 am
by CrazyC83
Yes I do expect similar weather, maybe a touch less severe, as compared to yesterday.
Also note - this is the 32nd anniversary of the Super Outbreak.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 11:11 am
by Skywatch_NC
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 11:30 am
by CrazyC83
Not far away from the focal point - this is a great opportunity for Southeast storm chasers!
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 11:55 am
by CrazyC83
Tornado Watch 147 will likely be issued soon for northern Georgia and interior South Carolina. I doubt it will be a PDS as it is not the main threat area.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 11:57 am
by CrazyC83
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH AND WEST SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL 800
PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ROME
GEORGIA TO 50 MILES EAST OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER AND E OF SRN APPALACHIANS.
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AS STORMS MOVE E ACROSS WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 11:59 am
by Gorky
The Moderate risk was extended down covering most of SC and a lot of Georgia at the last update, so certainly, the SPC sees some sort of increased risk there
Original Outlook
New Outlook
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:35 pm
by CrazyC83
1:19 PM EDT Monday 3 April 2006
Severe thunderstorm watch for
City of Hamilton
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Halton - Peel
Niagara
Oxford - Brant
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Waterloo - Wellington
Severe thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon.
This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds.
Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. If threatening weather approaches take immediate safety precautions.
An intense low pressure system will track across southern Ontario today and push a sharp cold front across southwestern Ontario later this afternoon. Conditions are now becoming favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold frontal passage. A very favourable wind shear pattern over this area today means that any thunderstorm that develops has the potential to produce damaging winds in excess of 90 km/h and large hail. Tornado development is also possible.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 1:35 pm
by CrazyC83
Tornado Watch 148 - likely for Central Pennsylvania and Western New York soon.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:16 pm
by brunota2003
we just missed the line, in the same county as me, about 10 miles north of here:
1713 1.75 BRIDGETON CRAVEN NC 3512 7702 (MHX)
the 1.75" Hail...wow...
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:27 pm
by tomboudreau
CrazyC83 wrote:Tornado Watch 148 - likely for Central Pennsylvania and Western New York soon.
Don't expect it to be a tornado watch. Most likely, this will a severe thunderstorm watch that gets issued for central PA and southern New York.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:29 pm
by george_r_1961
Im getting concerned here in Hampton
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0421.html
This is a serious situation. I live in a mobile home and im putting my tornado plan in effect.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:33 pm
by CajunMama
Stay safe George.
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:34 pm
by george_r_1961
Thanks Kathy. I am currently glued to my computer and will stay here for the duration unless a warning is issued for me. Then its to the ditch I go
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 2:49 pm
by brunota2003
yes george, stay safe...as for me, according to NWS AFD, im in the clear for now...could get something later...but the line of severe storms we were suppose to get only clipped us...
Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:08 pm
by CrazyC83
Do you have any friends houses that you can go to?
